Philadelphia @ Houston picks

Despite the lefty-lefty matchup against Astros SP Colton Gordon, Kyle Schwarber has the advantage. He has a Phillies-leading 1.077 OPS vs. southpaws, and 12 of his 24 homers have come in same-sided matchups. Meanwhile, Gordon has allowed eight home runs in 35 2/3 innings.

The Astros will hand the ball to Colton Gordon, who has surrendered eight home runs across just seven starts this season. Right-handed hitters have tagged him for seven of those long balls and are also batting .314 against him. Don’t be surprised if Castellanos puts one in the Crawford Boxes tonight. 

The Phillies have a Top-10 offense against left-handed pitchers, and Astros SP Colton Gordon has allowed 44 hits in 35 2/3 innings, with the Over cashing in five of his seven outings.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Yainer Diaz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 93.2-mph.. Despite posting a .281 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yainer Diaz has had bad variance on his side given the .044 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .325.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, J.T. Realmuto will have an advantage in today's game.. Despite posting a .297 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes J.T. Realmuto has had bad variance on his side given the .034 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Kyle Schwarber has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 94.2-mph average.. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle this year (19.6°) is significantly higher than his 14.9° figure last season.. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.6°, Kyle Schwarber has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 24.6° angle over the past 14 days.

Otto Kemp is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.. The league's 3rd-highest fences can be found at Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.. Otto Kemp hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 75th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Taylor Trammell will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today.. Taylor Trammell will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The league's 3rd-highest fences can be found at Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.. Colton Gordon will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Schwarber in today's game.. Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 5th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. In the past week, Brandon Marsh's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 98.2-mph of late.. Brandon Marsh's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 18.2% on the season to 46.2% in the past week.. Brandon Marsh has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 7.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal lower than his 15.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Edmundo Sosa is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.. When starting against a left-handed starter this year, Edmundo Sosa has been pulled from the game early 31% of the time.. The league's 3rd-highest fences can be found at Minute Maid Park.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Edmundo Sosa in today's game.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Colton Gordon is projected to throw 82 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of the day.. Marvin Hudson projects as a Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be behind the plate in today's game.. The shallowest LF fences in the league are found in Minute Maid Park.. With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Colton Gordon faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.. Colton Gordon's 90.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 15th percentile out of all starters.

The shallowest LF fences in the league are found in Minute Maid Park.. Hitting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Buddy Kennedy will have an edge in today's game.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Buddy Kennedy is in the 96th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .364.. Using Statcast metrics, Buddy Kennedy is in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .293.. Buddy Kennedy's 13.3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) is in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.