Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee picks

Paul Skenes vs. Jacob Misiorowski will be a great pitching matchup, but the 6.5 scoring line is begging for an Over bet, especially since the Pirates and Brewers have topped the total in five of the last six head-to-heads. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have also combined for seven runs in seven of the last nine meetings.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Misiorowski to throw 81 pitches today (5th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Jacob Misiorowski (34% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Pittsburgh's projected lineup.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 7th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Oneil Cruz will have the handedness advantage against Jacob Misiorowski today... and moreover, Misiorowski has a large platoon split.

Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The 8th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Spencer Horwitz will have the handedness advantage against Jacob Misiorowski in today's game... and moreover, Misiorowski has a large platoon split.. Spencer Horwitz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 17.5% on the season to 23.1% in the past week's worth of games.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The 8th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Jacob Misiorowski... and even better, Misiorowski has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Misiorowski to throw 81 pitches today (5th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward. The 8th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Jacob Misiorowski (34% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Pittsburgh's projected lineup.

The 8th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Henry Davis has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12.2% seasonal rate to 25% in the past two weeks.. Henry Davis has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph to 92.9-mph over the last two weeks.. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Henry Davis has suffered from bad luck this year. His .258 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .306.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 7th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Oneil Cruz will have the handedness advantage against Jacob Misiorowski today... and moreover, Misiorowski has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Jake Bauers will have an edge today.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Bauers has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The 8th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Spencer Horwitz will have the handedness advantage against Jacob Misiorowski in today's game... and moreover, Misiorowski has a large platoon split.. Spencer Horwitz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 17.5% on the season to 23.1% in the past week's worth of games.