Philadelphia @ Houston props

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF fences among all stadiums. Buddy Kennedy will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Using Statcast metrics, Buddy Kennedy grades out in the 96th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .364. Sporting a .293 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Buddy Kennedy is ranked in the 97th percentile. Buddy Kennedy's 13.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) ranks in the 91st percentile since the start of last season.

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Typically, bats like Jeremy Pena who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ranger Suarez. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 12.3% to 9.1%. Jeremy Pena has been lucky this year, posting a .378 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .052 gap.

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game. Alec Bohm will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. There has been a significant decline in Alec Bohm's launch angle from last year's 10° to 6.8° this year.

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Trea Turner in today's game. In the last 7 days, Trea Turner's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 90.5 mph to 87.9 mph. Trea Turner's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off recently, decreasing from 43.8% on the season to 34.8% over the past week.

The switch-hitting Cooper Hummel will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Ranger Suarez. Cooper Hummel pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Cooper Hummel will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last week, Cooper Hummel has displayed impressive power, recording a a 28.6% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 20th-best hitter in MLB. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Kyle Schwarber's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.7% up to 22.2%. Kyle Schwarber has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.1-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 94.2-mph EV. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle recently (24.2° over the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 19.6° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Mauricio Dubon will have an advantage in today's matchup. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Mauricio Dubon's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88-mph over the course of the season to 96.8-mph lately.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez today. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Isaac Paredes with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ranger Suarez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Edmundo Sosa's batting average ability is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF fences among all stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Edmundo Sosa will have an advantage in today's game. Compared to last season, Edmundo Sosa has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 39.5% to 48.8% this season. Ranking in the 96th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.43 ft/sec this year, Edmundo Sosa is very fast.

Jake Meyers's batting average talent is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jake Meyers is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Jake Meyers will have an edge in today's matchup. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Jake Meyers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Jose Altuve's batting average skill is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Altuve is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Jose Altuve will have an advantage in today's game. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. J.T. Realmuto will have the handedness advantage over Framber Valdez today. Despite posting a .301 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky given the .030 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Otto Kemp will have an advantage in today's game. Otto Kemp has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 5.9% seasonal rate to 20% over the past 7 days. Otto Kemp's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 14.7% on the season to 30% over the past 7 days. In the last week's worth of games, Otto Kemp's maximum exit velocity (a good proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 111.2-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF fences among all stadiums. Nick Castellanos will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez today. Nick Castellanos has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 9.3% seasonal rate to 21.2% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Yainer Diaz's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yainer Diaz will have the handedness advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's game. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Yainer Diaz will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Yainer Diaz's true offensive ability to be a .325, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .044 difference between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.

Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Johan Rojas will have an advantage in today's game. Johan Rojas's launch angle this year (9.5°) is considerably better than his 4.5° angle last season.

Christian Walker will hold the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez today. Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Christian Walker will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Christian Walker's launch angle of late (23.6° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 17.8° seasonal angle.

Victor Caratini has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.