Philadelphia @ Houston picks

It's a battle of first-place teams on Tuesday, and we'll roll with the Phillies here. Ranger Suarez has been outstanding this year, and he's on a run of six starts where he's given up two or fewer runs. The Phils' offense has been solid this year and is coming off a seven-run outburst vs. the Mets. I expect that to continue. 

Framber Valdez hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in a start in five straight and in seven of eight. Ranger Suarez similarly has surrendered more than two ER in two of his nine outings, with one being a rocky season debut. Both starters pitch deep and suppress scoring as they do it.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez today.. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Hitters such as Isaac Paredes with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ranger Suarez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Jose Altuve's batting average skill is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Jose Altuve will have an advantage in today's game.. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Over the past 7 days, Kyle Schwarber's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.7% up to 22.2%.. Kyle Schwarber has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.1-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 94.2-mph EV.. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle recently (24.2° over the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 19.6° seasonal mark.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez today.. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Hitters such as Isaac Paredes with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ranger Suarez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. Buddy Kennedy will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup.. Using Statcast metrics, Buddy Kennedy grades out in the 96th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .364.. Sporting a .293 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Buddy Kennedy is ranked in the 97th percentile.. Buddy Kennedy's 13.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) ranks in the 91st percentile since the start of last season.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Over the past 7 days, Kyle Schwarber's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.7% up to 22.2%.. Kyle Schwarber has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.1-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 94.2-mph EV.. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle recently (24.2° over the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 19.6° seasonal mark.

The switch-hitting Cooper Hummel will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Ranger Suarez.. Cooper Hummel pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Cooper Hummel will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. In the last week, Cooper Hummel has displayed impressive power, recording a a 28.6% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power).