New York @ Philadelphia picks

The wind is forecasted to be blowing out at Citizens Bank Park tonight, and the Mets andPhillies have already combined for 27 runs through the first two games of their series. Philly lefty Jesus Luzardo sports an underwhelming 4.41 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, and he’s also been touched up of late with 28 earned runs allowed across 23 2/3 innings over his past five starts. Flipping to New York southpaw David Peterson, while he’s been sneaky good, he’s outpitched his underlying numbers with his 2.60 ERA below both his 3.45 xFIP and 3.72 xERA.

Entering this contest in great form, Soto boasts a .389 BA, .889 SLG, and 1.365 OPS over his past five games and has previously homered vs. Luzardo.

Through 15 starts this season, Luzardo possesses a 4.41 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He also ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. New York’s Brandon Nimmo is likely to keep things going against Luzardo. Through 14 plate appearances against him, Nimmo boasts a .583 SLG with one home run.

David Peterson has averaged just 3.1 strikeouts per game, surpassing 3.5 only once, and his road splits show an even lower 4.8 K/9 rate. As a final feather in our cap, the Phillies have been terrific against the sinker this season — Peterson's most common pitch — with five players in the lineup slugging above the league average against it.

Luis Torrens has the second-highest expected batting average against the fastball among qualified Mets hitters. This means he has a great chance at getting on base ahead of leadoff hitter Francisco Lindor, amplifying his odds at driving in a run.

From a barrel and hard-hit rate, Pete Alonso profiles the strongest against the heater. His patience at the plate should allow him to see a few from Phillies SP Jesus Luzardo, as he often turns to the heater when behind in counts. This favors Alonso.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Schwarber stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Pete Alonso projects as the 9th-best home run hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Considering Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Pete Alonso will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 93°.. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. J.T. Realmuto is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 93°.. J.T. Realmuto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against David Peterson in today's matchup.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Ronny Mauricio pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.1% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today.. In the past week, Ronny Mauricio has posted a 22.5° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.. The standard deviation of Ronny Mauricio's launch angle has been very consistent lately (38.1° in the last week), which is an indicator of reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Schwarber stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Pete Alonso projects as the 9th-best home run hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Considering Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Pete Alonso will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

Pete Alonso projects as the 9th-best home run hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Considering Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Pete Alonso will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

The 4th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Citizens Bank Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. With 8 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, David Peterson will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.. David Peterson will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. David Peterson's fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this year (90.5 mph) below where it was last season (91.9 mph).