Detroit @ Tampa Bay picks
George M. Steinbrenner Field
DET vs TB Picks
MLB Picks
Earned Runs Allowed


Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
It hasn’t been a great season for Shane Baz, who is sporting a 4.54 ERA in 14 starts. Opponents are hitting .247, and Baz has surrendered 13 home runs. The Tigers have one of the best offenses in the majors, ranking fifth in runs, ninth in average, ninth in home runs, and sixth in slugging.
Total RBIs

Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage over Jack Flaherty in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Bats such as Spencer Torkelson with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Shane Baz who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs

Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his BABIP talent, Riley Greene is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Riley Greene will have an edge in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Gleyber Torres o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Gleyber Torres's batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gleyber Torres is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs

Kerry Carpenter o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his home run talent, Kerry Carpenter ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kerry Carpenter is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Kerry Carpenter will have an advantage today.
Total RBIs

Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Batting from the opposite that Jack Flaherty throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total RBIs

Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Junior Caminero's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.. Extreme groundball batters like Junior Caminero are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Flaherty.
Total Bases

Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage over Jack Flaherty in today's matchup.
Outs Recorded

Jack Flaherty u17.5 Outs Recorded (+102)
Projection 16.2 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.. The Tampa Bay Rays have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Jack Flaherty in this game.. Given that flyball hitters have a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Jack Flaherty and his 34.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in today's outing going up against 3 opposing GB hitters.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
Total Bases

Yandy Diaz o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 9th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.