Milwaukee @ Chicago picks

The Cubs are 24-12 at Wrigley Field, and starter Jameson Taillon has won five straight with a sterling 1.91 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. He’s also been money at home for the North Siders with a 3.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 211 2/3  innings since joining the club. The Brewers starter Peralta has also outpitched his underlying numbers with his 2.60 ERA way short of his 4.07 xFIP. Additionally, the veteran righty hasn’t been as sharp on the highway with a 3.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 4.34 xFIP compared to respective 1.32.  0.90 and 3.80 marks at American Family Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. William Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Extreme flyball batters like William Contreras generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jameson Taillon.. In the last week's worth of games, William Contreras's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.2-mph over the course of the season to 102.1-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. In MLB, Wrigley Field's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. Over the past two weeks, Jackson Chourio's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 98.8-mph of late.. Ranking in the 76th percentile, Jackson Chourio sports a .302 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

The #5 venue in the game for suppressing offensive stats to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.. Wrigley Field has the 7th-highest fence height (on average) among all parks.. Freddy Peralta will have the handedness advantage against Seiya Suzuki today.. Extreme groundball bats like Seiya Suzuki generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Sal Frelick is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.. Hitting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Sal Frelick will have the upper hand in today's game.. Batters such as Sal Frelick with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jameson Taillon who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Sal Frelick has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 85.5-mph average to last season's 83.3-mph figure.. Checking in at the 89th percentile, Sal Frelick sports a .291 batting average this year.