Pittsburgh @ Detroit picks

Tarik Skubal is coming off a season-high 98 pitches five days ago and although that might not seem like a big workload, the lefty does not get a long leash and there are some other factors that could shorten his start today. There is a serious risk of rain in Detroit. That rain is projected around the first pitch so there could be a delay which isn’t helpful for the Detroit starter who has gone Under 8.5 Ks in three straight starts despite throwing Over 21 innings. Nine strikeouts is a lot and even more for a pitcher who doesn’t hit 95 pitches every start and has to battle some East Coast elements. 

Sometimes bets are obvious, and it's not a bad thing. Skubal is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He's in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate while the Pirates can't hit and have the third-highest K-rate vs. left-handed pitchers this season.

Paul Skenes ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. His strikeout prop is currently set at 6.5, a total he has surpassed in five of his past six starts. Skenes boasts a ridiculous 0.65 ERA and 9.58 K/9 over that stretch. 

Alexander Canario is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. Alexander Canario has a ton of pop (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (31.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tyler Holton is a pitch-to-contact type (7th percentile K%) — great news for Canario.. Alexander Canario's footspeed has improved this year. His 27.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.92 ft/sec now.. Alexander Canario has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 14.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 27.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Holton in today's game.

When assessing his BABIP talent, Riley Greene is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Riley Greene will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Skenes in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run skill, Kerry Carpenter ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kerry Carpenter is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Kerry Carpenter will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Holton throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have the upper hand today.

Alexander Canario is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. Alexander Canario has a ton of pop (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (31.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tyler Holton is a pitch-to-contact type (7th percentile K%) — great news for Canario.. Alexander Canario's footspeed has improved this year. His 27.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.92 ft/sec now.. Alexander Canario has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 14.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 27.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Holton in today's game.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Holton in today's game.

Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jake Rogers will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. When it comes to his home runs, Jake Rogers has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His 15.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.5.

When assessing his home run ability, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Extreme groundball bats like Spencer Torkelson are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Skenes.