Milwaukee @ Chicago picks
Wrigley Field
MIL vs CHC Picks
MLB Picks
MoneyLine

Tony Sartori
Betting Analyst
Milwaukee’s pitching advantage tonight is strong enough to justify taking a shot on its +123 price tag. While Chicago possesses the better lineup, the Brewers also rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game.
Total RBIs

Jackson Chourio o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Jackson Chourio is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Wrigley Field has the 2nd-shallowest left field fences in the majors.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate.. In the last 14 days, Jackson Chourio's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 98.8-mph lately.
Total RBIs

William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. William Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate.. Extreme groundball bats like William Contreras usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ben Brown.
Total RBIs

Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Seiya Suzuki projects as the 17th-best batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Wrigley Field has the 2nd-shallowest left field fences in the majors.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs

Kyle Tucker o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate.. Hitting from the opposite that Chad Patrick throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an edge in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Rhys Hoskins o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Rhys Hoskins is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate.. Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Rhys Hoskins has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 93-mph.
Total RBIs

Christian Yelich o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich as the 20th-best batter in the majors when assessing his BABIP talent.. Christian Yelich is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate.. Batting from the opposite that Ben Brown throws from, Christian Yelich will have an edge today.
Total RBIs

Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate.. Hitting from the opposite that Chad Patrick throws from, Michael Busch will have an edge in today's matchup.. Michael Busch will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. In the last 7 days, Michael Busch's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.9% up to 21.4%.
Total Bases

William Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. William Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate.. Extreme groundball bats like William Contreras usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ben Brown.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

William Contreras o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection 2.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. William Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate.. Extreme groundball bats like William Contreras usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ben Brown.
Total Bases

Dansby Swanson o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Wrigley Field has the 2nd-shallowest left field fences in the majors.. Humid weather has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the highest humidity on the slate today at 86%.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage today.