Baltimore @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

George M. Steinbrenner Field profiles as the #25 park in MLB for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Yandy Diaz meets a tough challenge in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Zach Eflin. The Baltimore Orioles infield defense grades out as the strongest among every team in action today. Over the past two weeks, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 94.4 mph to 87 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Christopher Morel will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Christopher Morel has made big gains with his Barrel%, improving his 10.3% rate last season to 16.1% this season. Christopher Morel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 14.7% to 24.1%.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Extreme flyball batters like Danny Jansen tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Zach Eflin. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Danny Jansen has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 6.7% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the last 14 days. Compared to his seasonal average of 23.6°, Danny Jansen has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 42.8° angle in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Jackson Holliday will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Jackson Holliday tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Out of all the teams playing today, the 12th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Over the past week, Ramon Urias's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7% up to 16.7%. In the past week's worth of games, Ramon Urias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 101.8-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have an advantage today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 12th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Out of all the teams playing today, the 12th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Dylan Carlson has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph mark. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (26.3° over the last 14 days) is considerably higher than his 17.7° seasonal figure. Compared to last season, Dylan Carlson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 39.1% to 51.5% this season.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Out of all the teams playing today, the 12th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.9°, Adley Rutschman has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 19.4° figure over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 12th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. With a .332 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Colton Cowser has performed in the 75th percentile for offensive skills.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 76th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Ramon Laureano is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Out of all the teams playing today, the 12th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Ramon Laureano's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (23.5° in the past 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 20.2° seasonal mark.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage today. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 19.6% on the season to 40% in the last week's worth of games. Compared to last season, Jose Caballero has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 43.9% to 52% this season. By putting up a .317 BABIP since the start of last season, Jose Caballero is positioned in the 81st percentile.

Junior Caminero's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Junior Caminero has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.8-mph average to last season's 89.5-mph mark.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Matt Thaiss will have an advantage today. Matt Thaiss will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Matt Thaiss has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 24.85 ft/sec to 25.42 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). In terms of plate discipline, Matt Thaiss's talent is quite impressive, posting a 1.69 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Jordan Westburg is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Out of all the teams playing today, the 12th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Over the past week, Jordan Westburg's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.1% up to 20%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 12th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Taylor Walls's 45.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an edge in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Jake Mangum will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's game. Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 12th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Cedric Mullins has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 8.6% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past week.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Kameron Misner will have the upper hand today. Kameron Misner will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Kameron Misner has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 36.4° compared to his seasonal mark of 15.3°.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°. Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Josh Lowe has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.