Toronto @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report expects the 5th-least humidity on the slate at 40%. Hitting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, Bo Bichette encounters a tough challenge in today's matchup. Bo Bichette has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. Bo Bichette will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.2°, Bo Bichette has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-5°) in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alan Roden in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Alan Roden will have an edge today. Hitters such as Alan Roden with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Miles Mikolas who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Despite posting a .232 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alan Roden has suffered from bad luck given the .071 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .303.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Nathan Lukes has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (97% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Nathan Lukes will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Nathan Lukes are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Miles Mikolas. In the past 7 days, Nathan Lukes's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.8-mph over the course of the season to 95.3-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Ernie Clement's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 87.9-mph now compared to just 85.3-mph then. Ernie Clement's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, rising from 47.6% on the season to 55% in the past two weeks. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.326) may lead us to conclude that Ernie Clement has experienced some negative variance this year with his .303 actual wOBA. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Ernie Clement is in the 91st percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .287.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Andres Gimenez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Andres Gimenez will have the handedness advantage against Miles Mikolas today. Hitters such as Andres Gimenez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Miles Mikolas who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Andres Gimenez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last season's 88.8-mph mark.

Given Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Gorman has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.1% seasonal rate to 50% in the past week's worth of games. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (28.3°) is a significant increase over his 24.5° angle last season.

Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report expects the 5th-least humidity on the slate at 40%. Hitting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, Alejandro Kirk will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. In today's game, Alejandro Kirk is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.7% rate (95th percentile). Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alejandro Kirk in today's game. Compared to his seasonal mark of 12°, Alejandro Kirk has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2.2°) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. Given Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Lars Nootbaar will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. George Springer has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 9.3% rate last season to 21.8% this year. George Springer has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 21.8% seasonal rate to 31.9% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.8°, George Springer has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 30.2° angle in the last 7 days.

Victor Scott II will have the handedness advantage against Chris Bassitt today... and even better, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Victor Scott II will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Placing in the 75th percentile, Victor Scott II has notched a .324 BABIP this year.

Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report expects the 5th-least humidity on the slate at 40%. Miles Mikolas will have the handedness advantage against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 14.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 4.8% in the last week.

Addison Barger is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Addison Barger will have an advantage in today's game. Addison Barger has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.8% rate last year to 15.8% this season. Addison Barger has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 15.8% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last two weeks. Addison Barger has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.1-mph average to last year's 88.1-mph figure.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Willson Contreras has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 13.1% seasonal rate to 27.8% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Ivan Herrera will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. This season, Ivan Herrera has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.3 mph compared to last year's 91.5 mph mark. Ivan Herrera's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 46.6% to 53.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 84th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The switch-hitting Jonatan Clase will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Miles Mikolas. In the past 7 days, Jonatan Clase's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.1-mph over the course of the season to 93.8-mph in recent games. In the last week's worth of games, Jonatan Clase's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 40.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 78th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Masyn Winn is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's matchup. This season, Masyn Winn has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 90.5 mph compared to last year's 88 mph mark. Masyn Winn has compiled a .273 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Brendan Donovan will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and even better, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Brendan Donovan will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 45.8% to 54.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Because of Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Alec Burleson will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today. Alec Burleson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage today.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Arenado's launch angle lately (23.5° in the last two weeks) is significantly better than his 19.2° seasonal angle. Posting a 1.5 K/BB rate this year, Nolan Arenado has displayed strong plate discipline, ranking in the 86th percentile.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game.

Tyler Heineman has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.