Toronto @ St. Louis picks

The last time I faded Chris Bassitt, he was solid vs. the Phillies and picked up the win. Today, we back him against a Cardinals side that has seen him only a handful of times. The Jays' offense right now is swinging some hot bats, so we'll back them to get to Miles Mikolas early and often. 

During this 11-3 run, the Blue Jays rank second in the big leagues in batting average, OPS, and wRC+. So, I’m betting those bats will still play against Miles Mikolas. Even though he’s got a 3.96 ERA, Mikolas has been a little lucky at this point. He enters this interleague matchup with a 4.35 expected ERA while giving up a .265 expected batting average to opponents. Both rank in the Bottom 30% among MLB pitchers. Mikolas is also averaging just 79.4 pitches per start this season. So, another short start could be in order tonight.

Miles Mikolas is not a great pitcher. The St. Louis Cardinals veteran's leash is getting shorter and the only times it seems he gets Over this number is when he's having BABIP luck and guys are swinging early vs. him because he is not a tough pitcher to pick up. Fifteen points are not a lot for a guy who could have a 30-pitch inning vs. one of the best offenses in baseball over the last 30 days. Mikolas has averaged 79 pitches across his last 10 starts where he is 6-4 to the Under on this total. Hitting conditions are good across the board today and the Toronto Blue Jays are hot.

George Springer is 4-for-9 in his prior battles with Miles Mikolas, including a solo homer, and the St. Louis veteran has coughed up 17 hits across his past two outings. Springer’s splits confirm he’s done plenty of damage against righties this year, with 14 of his 15 doubles coming off right-handers.

The St. Louis Cardinals (20.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of batters of all teams on the slate.. It is likely that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Clint Vondrak) behind the plate in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the 5th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Playing on the road typically lessens pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Chris Bassitt today.

Nolan Gorman projects as the 20th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Given Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game.. Nolan Gorman has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.1% seasonal rate to 50% in the past week's worth of games.. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (28.3°) is a significant increase over his 24.5° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in baseball as it relates to his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.6-mph to 98.1-mph in the last two weeks.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .350 figure is a good deal lower than his .402 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has put up a .354 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 83rd percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. George Springer has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 9.3% rate last season to 21.8% this year.. George Springer has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 21.8% seasonal rate to 31.9% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.8°, George Springer has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 30.2° angle in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Ivan Herrera will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.. This season, Ivan Herrera has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.3 mph compared to last year's 91.5 mph mark.. Ivan Herrera's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 46.6% to 53.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Alejandro Kirk has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last season's 89.3-mph figure.. Alejandro Kirk has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 99.4-mph over the last two weeks.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (20.0) suggests that Alejandro Kirk has had bad variance on his side this year with his 11.5 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Andres Gimenez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Andres Gimenez will have the handedness advantage against Miles Mikolas today.. Hitters such as Andres Gimenez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Miles Mikolas who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Andres Gimenez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last season's 88.8-mph mark.

As it relates to his home run talent, Addison Barger ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Addison Barger is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Addison Barger will have an advantage in today's game.. Addison Barger has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.8% rate last year to 15.8% this season.. Addison Barger has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 15.8% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last two weeks.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Given Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Lars Nootbaar will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage in today's game.

Nolan Gorman projects as the 20th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Given Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game.. Nolan Gorman has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.1% seasonal rate to 50% in the past week's worth of games.. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (28.3°) is a significant increase over his 24.5° angle last season.