Atlanta @ Milwaukee picks

Brewers SP Quinn Priester isn’t one for strikeouts. He’s running a 15.2% punchout rate over his brief three-year career, and while he did make some strides in the walks column last season, he’s back up to an 11.1% walk rate this year. This is not a great matchup for Priester given the Braves’ continued efforts to walk and their lurking power bats which have been starting to find some consistency, and that should mean a win here behind Grant Holmes.

This is a giant price for a short total with a pitcher who has gone Over this number in three of his last four starts. Milwaukee Brewers SP Quinn Priester has touched triple digits for a pitch count twice this year but can still get to 18 outs on fewer than 90 pitches. It’s a home start vs. an average Atlanta Braves offense. The Brewers also burned two big middle relievers yesterday with DJ Hall and Grant Anderson throwing 40+ pitches. There is a risk that Priester goes 15 outs and 85 pitches, but his leash could grow or he could get 16 or more on 90 or fewer. It’s a coin flip at +130 odds. 

When it comes to his home run talent, Jake Bauers ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Jake Bauers will have the upper hand today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Jake Bauers tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Grant Holmes.. Jake Bauers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. William Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. William Contreras will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. William Contreras has been unlucky this year, notching a .311 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .038 discrepancy.

Rhys Hoskins is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.. Extreme flyball batters like Rhys Hoskins generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Grant Holmes.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Rhys Hoskins will hold that advantage in today's game.. Compared to his seasonal average of 22.8°, Rhys Hoskins has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 45.5° mark over the past week.. Rhys Hoskins has notched a .345 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 77th percentile.

When it comes to his home run talent, Jake Bauers ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Bauers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Jake Bauers will have the upper hand today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Jake Bauers tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Grant Holmes.. Jake Bauers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Emil Jimenez profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.. Quinn Priester will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing hitters in today's game.. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 4th-best among every team today.. Because groundball pitchers hold a sizeable edge over groundball batters, Quinn Priester and his 52.9% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today's game facing 2 opposing GB batters.. Home field advantage generally improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Quinn Priester will hold that advantage today.

Isaac Collins will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Jackson Chourio's batting average ability is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Jackson Chourio will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.. In the past week, Jackson Chourio's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 100.3-mph recently.

Extreme flyball hitters like Ozzie Albies tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Quinn Priester.. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.8°, Ozzie Albies has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 41° angle over the past week.. Last year, Ozzie Albies had an average launch angle of 14.2° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 18.5°.. Despite posting a .294 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ozzie Albies has been unlucky given the .027 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .321.. Ozzie Albies has shown good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 87th percentile with a 1.49 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Sean Murphy's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, going from 19% on the season to 33.3% in the past week.. Power-wise, Sean Murphy grades out in the 96th percentile, having hit 38.1 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. William Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. William Contreras will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. William Contreras has been unlucky this year, notching a .311 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .038 discrepancy.