Atlanta @ Milwaukee Picks & Props

Batting from the same side that Quinn Priester throws from, Ronald Acuna Jr. will have a disadvantage in today's matchup. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 4th-best among every team today. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Compared to his seasonal mark of 14°, Ronald Acuna Jr.'s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls has dropped significantly of late (6° in the past 14 days).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Alex Verdugo will hold the platoon advantage over Quinn Priester in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.306) suggests that Alex Verdugo has suffered from bad luck this year with his .274 actual wOBA.

Typically, batters like Michael Harris II who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Quinn Priester. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 4th-best among every team today. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Michael Harris II in today's game. Last season, Michael Harris II had a launch angle of 7.7° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just 4.6°. Placing in the 7th percentile, Michael Harris II has posted a .255 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Batting from the same side that Quinn Priester throws from, Austin Riley will have a tough challenge today. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Austin Riley today. Austin Riley's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 18.4% to 14.8%. Austin Riley has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .285 figure is quite a bit higher than his .266 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Posting a 4.23 K/BB rate this year, Austin Riley has displayed weak plate discipline, ranking in the 17th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Brice Turang is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Brice Turang will hold the platoon advantage against Grant Holmes in today's game. Brice Turang hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Brice Turang will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Isaac Collins will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Caleb Durbin hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Caleb Durbin will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Caleb Durbin has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.4-mph to 88-mph in the past 14 days. Caleb Durbin has displayed favorable plate discipline this year, placing in the 92nd percentile with a 1.29 K/BB rate.

Jackson Chourio's batting average ability is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jackson Chourio will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. In the past week, Jackson Chourio's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 100.3-mph recently.

Nick Allen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

Christian Yelich's BABIP skill is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Christian Yelich is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Christian Yelich will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Christian Yelich will hold that advantage in today's game.

Extreme flyball hitters like Ozzie Albies tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Quinn Priester. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.8°, Ozzie Albies has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 41° angle over the past week. Last year, Ozzie Albies had an average launch angle of 14.2° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 18.5°. Despite posting a .294 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ozzie Albies has been unlucky given the .027 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .321. Ozzie Albies has shown good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 87th percentile with a 1.49 K/BB rate.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). William Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. William Contreras will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. William Contreras has been unlucky this year, notching a .311 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .038 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Over the last 7 days, Marcell Ozuna's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.4% up to 18.8%. In the last week's worth of games, Marcell Ozuna's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.4-mph over the course of the season to 99.4-mph lately. Utilizing Statcast data, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 96th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .372.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 80th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Hitting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Sal Frelick will have an advantage today. Sal Frelick hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. Sal Frelick will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Sal Frelick has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 86.1-mph average to last season's 83.3-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Matt Olson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Quinn Priester throws from, Matt Olson will have the upper hand in today's game. Matt Olson has made notable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 12.5% rate last year to 19% this year. Matt Olson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year's 91.3-mph average.

Rhys Hoskins is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Extreme flyball batters like Rhys Hoskins generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Grant Holmes. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Rhys Hoskins will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 22.8°, Rhys Hoskins has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 45.5° mark over the past week. Rhys Hoskins has notched a .345 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 77th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Sean Murphy's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, going from 19% on the season to 33.3% in the past week.

Jake Bauers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Jake Bauers will have the upper hand today. Extreme groundball hitters like Jake Bauers tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Grant Holmes. Jake Bauers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Jake Bauers has made significant strides with his Barrel%, improving his 10.5% rate last year to 18.9% this season.