Los Angeles @ San Diego picks

Dustin May has been mediocre out of the gate, posting a 4.09 ERA through 11 starts, including an expected batting average sitting in the 31st percentile. Things won’t get easier against a stacked Padres lineup loaded with high-profile right-handed bats. With Nick Pivetta toeing the rubber for San Diego, the home side holds a clear edge.

The Dodgers have the most dangerous lineup in baseball, and just recently passed the Cubs for most runs scored in the Big Leagues this season. I like them to keep the runs coming when they dig in against Padres starter Nick Pivetta. Pivetta’s first season in San Diego has mostly been solid, but he’s had a few hiccups along the way, including surrendering five runs on six hits in six innings last time out against the Giants. Not only does he have to deal with a Dodgers lineup that leads the majors in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, but one that's given him a fair amount of problems in the past. Current Dodgers batters have combined for a .262 expected batting average and a .496 expected slugging over 144 plate appearances. 

Hitting behind Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr., two of the Padres' players least likely to strike out, Manny Machado will be batting with runners on base against a pitcher in Dustin May whom he can handle.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #7 venue in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all stadiums.. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.7°, Teoscar Hernandez has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 20.8° figure in the past week's worth of games.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for LHB home runs.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all stadiums.. Considering Dustin May's huge platoon split, Gavin Sheets will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.. The Los Angeles Dodgers infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. The #7 venue in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Among all major league parks, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all stadiums.. Over the last 14 days, Andy Pages's 53.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill as the 20th-best hitter in MLB when estimating his batting average skill.. Jackson Merrill is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for LHB home runs.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all stadiums.. Jackson Merrill will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dustin May today... and even more favorably, May has a huge platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Mookie Betts is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. The #7 venue in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all stadiums.. Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #7 venue in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all stadiums.. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.7°, Teoscar Hernandez has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 20.8° figure in the past week's worth of games.

When it comes to his home run ability, Max Muncy ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for LHB home runs.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Max Muncy will have an advantage in today's game.. In the last week, Max Muncy's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.4% up to 33.3%.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #7 venue in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all stadiums.. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.7°, Teoscar Hernandez has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 20.8° figure in the past week's worth of games.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for LHB home runs.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all stadiums.. Considering Dustin May's huge platoon split, Gavin Sheets will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.. The Los Angeles Dodgers infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team today.

The #7 venue in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all stadiums.. Elias Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.. The Los Angeles Dodgers infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team today.. Elias Diaz will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.