San Diego @ Milwaukee picks

There have been nine total runs scored through the first two games of the series. The Under is now 38-24 for the Brewers this season and 36-25 for the Padres, making them two of the more profitable Under teams in the league.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 10th-best batter in the majors.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Fernando Tatis Jr.'s true offensive talent to be a .377, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .034 difference between that figure and his actual .343 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Bergert throws from, Jake Bauers will have an advantage today.. Jake Bauers has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryan Bergert struggles to strike batters out (8th percentile K%) — great news for Bauers.. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team today.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Gavin Sheets will have the upper hand today.. Gavin Sheets has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.9-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph figure.. Gavin Sheets has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 95.9-mph.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Ryan Bergert in the 17th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching skills.. Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ryan Bergert is projected to throw 78 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers today.. Martin Maldonado, the Padres's expected catcher in today's game, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Because groundball hitters have a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Ryan Bergert and his 35.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough position in today's game going up against 3 opposing GB bats.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Tyler Wade will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball hitters like Tyler Wade generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Gavin Sheets will have the upper hand today.. Gavin Sheets has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.9-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph figure.. Gavin Sheets has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 95.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Bergert throws from, Jake Bauers will have an advantage today.. Jake Bauers has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryan Bergert struggles to strike batters out (8th percentile K%) — great news for Bauers.. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team today.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Freddy Peralta's four-seam fastball percentage has jumped by 6.1% from last season to this one (53.8% to 59.9%) .. With a 1.17 discrepancy between Freddy Peralta's 2.92 ERA and his 4.09 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors this year and should see negative regression in the future.. Freddy Peralta has exhibited weak control this year, putting up a 20th percentile Walk% of 10%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage over Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. In the last week, Jake Cronenworth's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.6%.. As it relates to his batting average, Jake Cronenworth has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .242 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .274.