Toronto @ Minnesota picks
Target Field
TOR vs MIN Picks
MLB Picks
Total Bases


Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst
Barger has had far more success hitting righties than lefties, especially when it comes to power, with 15 of his 17 extra base hits being against RHP, for a slug rate of .523. His underlying metrics are even more impressive, as his expected batting average this year is in the 90th percentile across all of baseball at .295, while being in the top 2% in average exit velocity (94.6mph); which means Barger is hitting the ball more frequently and is making solid contact when doing so. Marrying these two aspects of the game together has allowed Barger’s power to manifest at the major league level this season, especially over the past few weeks
Total RBIs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in baseball when estimating his batting average talent.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 15.5% seasonal rate to 22% in the last two weeks.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 93.4-mph average.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 46.9% on the season to 54% over the past two weeks.
Total RBIs

Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. Alejandro Kirk has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.4-mph average to last season's 89.3-mph mark.. Alejandro Kirk has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.4-mph EV.. Alejandro Kirk's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 42.3% to 52.1%.
Total RBIs

George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. George Springer is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. The Barrel% of George Springer has significantly improved, with an increase from 9.3% last year to 21.8% this year.. George Springer has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 21.8% seasonal rate to 30.2% in the past two weeks.. George Springer has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year's 93.2-mph figure.
Total RBIs

Trevor Larnach o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Larnach in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Trevor Larnach will hold that advantage today.. In the last two weeks, Trevor Larnach's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.9%.
Total RBIs

Byron Buxton o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as the game's 15th-best home run batter.. Byron Buxton is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Batting from the same side that Kevin Gausman throws from, Byron Buxton will not have the upper hand in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Byron Buxton will hold that advantage in today's game.. Byron Buxton has paced 27.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 88th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total RBIs

Matt Wallner o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the league's 10th-best home run batter.. Matt Wallner is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Matt Wallner will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. Over the last 7 days, Matt Wallner's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 20% up to 46.2%.. Matt Wallner has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph to 101.4-mph over the past week.
Total RBIs

Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 82nd percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Batting from the same side that Kevin Gausman throws from, Ryan Jeffers will not have the upper hand in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage in today's game.. In the last two weeks, Ryan Jeffers's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 99-mph in recent games.
Total RBIs

Addison Barger o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run skill, Addison Barger ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Addison Barger will have the handedness advantage against Bailey Ober in today's matchup.. The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Addison Barger can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.. The Barrel% of Addison Barger has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.8% last year to 15.2% this year.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-110)
Projection 2.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in baseball when estimating his batting average talent.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 15.5% seasonal rate to 22% in the last two weeks.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 93.4-mph average.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 46.9% on the season to 54% over the past two weeks.
Total Bases

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in baseball when estimating his batting average talent.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 15.5% seasonal rate to 22% in the last two weeks.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 93.4-mph average.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 46.9% on the season to 54% over the past two weeks.