San Diego @ Milwaukee Picks & Props

Batting from the same side that Chad Patrick throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. meets a tough challenge in today's game. The Milwaukee Brewers infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. today. Over the past 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.3% down to 0%. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 48.8% to 37.2%.

Tyler Wade will have the handedness advantage against Chad Patrick today. Extreme groundball batters like Tyler Wade are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Chad Patrick. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.245) may lead us to conclude that Tyler Wade has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .221 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Martin Maldonado in the 0th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Martin Maldonado is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the same side that Chad Patrick throws from, Martin Maldonado faces a tough challenge in today's game. The Milwaukee Brewers infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Martin Maldonado in today's game.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage over Chad Patrick in today's game. Gavin Sheets has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.7-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal figure of 95.8-mph. Gavin Sheets has posted a .351 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.

The Milwaukee Brewers infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jackson Merrill in today's game. In the past 7 days, Jackson Merrill's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 93.2 mph to 84.6 mph. Jackson Merrill has been lucky this year, notching a .371 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .340 — a .031 disparity.

Randy Vasquez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Chourio today. The San Diego Padres outfield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams on the slate today. Jackson Chourio's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 89.7-mph figure last year has fallen to 87-mph. Jackson Chourio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 16% to 10.2%. Jackson Chourio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, falling from 10.2% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

The Milwaukee Brewers infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Luis Arraez in today's game. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.9-mph average last year has dropped off to 84.9-mph. Compared to his seasonal mark of 13.8°, Luis Arraez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0°) over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lockridge in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Brandon Lockridge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme flyball batters like Brandon Lockridge generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Chad Patrick. Brandon Lockridge is notably toolsy, placing in the 99th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.88 ft/sec this year.

Isaac Collins will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Isaac Collins has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 89.4-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 86.1-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage against Chad Patrick in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.273) suggests that Jake Cronenworth has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .243 actual batting average. Jake Cronenworth has shown impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile with a 1.73 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Xander Bogaerts has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .286 rate is a good deal lower than his .322 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. When it comes to plate discipline, Xander Bogaerts's ability is quite impressive, sporting a 1.67 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 81st percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). William Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like William Contreras usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Randy Vasquez. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and William Contreras will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Caleb Durbin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Caleb Durbin will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Posting a 1.46 K/BB rate this year, Caleb Durbin has displayed good plate discipline, checking in at the 87th percentile.

Brice Turang's batting average skill is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brice Turang is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Brice Turang will have an advantage in today's game. Brice Turang hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Brice Turang will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Christian Yelich is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Christian Yelich will have an advantage today. Extreme groundball hitters like Christian Yelich tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Randy Vasquez. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Christian Yelich will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Sal Frelick's batting average ability is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Sal Frelick is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Sal Frelick will have an advantage in today's game. Sal Frelick hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Sal Frelick tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Randy Vasquez.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. In the past 7 days, Manny Machado's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.4% up to 18.2%. Manny Machado has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 97.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 95.2-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Extreme groundball bats like Jose Iglesias are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Chad Patrick. Jose Iglesias has notched a .337 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 82nd percentile. By putting up a .313 batting average since the start of last season, Jose Iglesias is ranked in the 99th percentile.

Jake Bauers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez today. Jake Bauers will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. The Barrel% of Jake Bauers has significantly improved, with an increase from 10.5% last year to 20.4% this season.

Rhys Hoskins is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Rhys Hoskins will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Rhys Hoskins's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (31.3° over the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 20.2° seasonal angle. Rhys Hoskins's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 37.9% to 43.9%. Posting a .355 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Rhys Hoskins has performed in the 82nd percentile.