Cleveland @ New York picks
Yankee Stadium
CLE vs NYY Picks
MLB Picks
Total Home Runs


Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The reigning AL MVP has 21 home runs already while hitting just under .400. He’s unstoppable offensively. Judge has three long balls in his last five appearances, and tonight’s matchup plays in his favor. The New York Yankees’ lineup will face Cleveland Guardians starter Slade Cecconi, who has a 5.28 ERA. He’s surrendered five homers in only three outings, and Judge is 1 for 1 against him with — you guessed it — a HR. Fourteen of his bombs are against righties, and Judge has 10 long balls at Yankee Stadium. It’s been three games since Judge put one in the bleachers.
Total RBIs

Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+105)
Projection 0.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in baseball.. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. In the past 7 days, Aaron Judge's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 24.1% up to 36.4%.
Total RBIs

Trent Grisham o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Trent Grisham as the game's 19th-best home run hitter.. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Trent Grisham will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Slade Cecconi in today's game.. Trent Grisham pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Jazz Chisholm Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his home run skill, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the handedness advantage against Slade Cecconi in today's matchup.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Bo Naylor o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-150)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Extreme groundball batters like Bo Naylor tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.. Bo Naylor's launch angle this season (25.6°) is significantly higher than his 19.5° figure last season.. Compared to his seasonal average of 25.6°, Bo Naylor has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 30.9° mark in the past 14 days.. Bo Naylor has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .174 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .196 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total Bases

Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Trent Grisham as the game's 19th-best home run hitter.. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Trent Grisham will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Slade Cecconi in today's game.. Trent Grisham pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jazz Chisholm Jr. o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his home run skill, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the handedness advantage against Slade Cecconi in today's matchup.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases

Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (-145)
Projection 2.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in baseball.. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. In the past 7 days, Aaron Judge's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 24.1% up to 36.4%.
Outs Recorded

Max Fried o18.5 Outs Recorded (+140)
Projection 18.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Max Fried projects as the 6th-best starter in the game right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Max Fried has averaged 95.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 91st percentile.. The Cleveland Guardians projected offense ranks as the 2nd-weakest of the day in terms of overall batting ability.. It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Cory Blaser) calling pitches in today's game.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Wells (the Yankees's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jhonkensy Noel o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-145)
Projection 1.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Jhonkensy Noel will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Fried in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jhonkensy Noel's true offensive talent to be a .292, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .117 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .175 wOBA.. In terms of power, Jhonkensy Noel grades out in the 95th percentile, having paced 30.6 HRs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Will Wilson o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-130)
Projection 1.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Will Wilson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Fried in today's game.