Cleveland @ New York picks

The Yankees return home after going 6-3 on their nine-game western road trip. With an off-day Monday, they will have their full bullpen ready to go, but more importantly, Carlos Rodon gets the ball and should have no issues here. Rodon has been solid this year, posting a 7-3 record with a 2.60 ERA. Given how inconsistent the Guardians have been at the plate, I see them struggling for production on Tuesday. 

Unfortunately for Bibee, Aaron Judge has dominated against that pitch mix all season long. Isolating the four most used pitches from Bibee – four-seamer, changeup, cutter, and sweeper – Judge is hitting .402 on the season with a remarkable 24.2% barrel rate. Judge isn’t just getting on base at a sky-high rate; he’s also hitting for insane power. Judge is averaging 2.9 total bases per game and has cleared this line at a 66% clip. He also hasn’t gone more than two straight home games, which is his current drought, without a couple of bases all season long. Bibee is a good pitcher, but Judge is one of the best hitters of all time. Expect that talent gap to shine through Tuesday night.

Manny Gonzalez grades out as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.. Yankee Stadium grades out as the #22 venue in baseball for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Carlos Rodon's fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this season (93.7 mph) below where it was last season (95.6 mph).. Over his previous 3 starts, Carlos Rodon has suffered a substantial fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2320 rpm over the entire season to 2263 rpm of late.. Carlos Rodon has had some very good luck with his strikeouts this year, notching an 11.15 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.33 — a 0.81 K/9 deviation.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Aaron Judge will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.. Over the past week, Aaron Judge's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 24.1% up to 30.8%.

In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Jhonkensy Noel will hold the platoon advantage over Carlos Rodon in today's game.. The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams playing today.. Jhonkensy Noel has been unlucky this year, notching a .179 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .293 — a .114 gap.. Grading out in the 95th percentile for power, Jhonkensy Noel has hit 30.8 dingers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams playing today.. There has been a significant improvement in Bo Naylor's launch angle from last season's 19.5° to 25.6° this year.. Bo Naylor's launch angle lately (30.9° over the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 25.6° seasonal mark.. With a .317 Isolated Power (ISO) this year, Bo Naylor is positioned in the 81st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Gabriel Arias will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Gabriel Arias has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Gabriel Arias are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.

In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Will Wilson will have an edge in today's matchup.. The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Bibee throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an advantage today.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Aaron Judge will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.. Over the past week, Aaron Judge's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 24.1% up to 30.8%.

Carlos Santana is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The switch-hitting Carlos Santana will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Carlos Rodon.. The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams playing today.. By putting up a 1.25 K/BB rate this year, Carlos Santana has demonstrated good plate discipline, placing in the 93rd percentile.

David Fry is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, David Fry will have the upper hand today.. The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams playing today.. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, David Fry ranks in the 93rd percentile with a 19.4° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in MLB.