Philadelphia @ Toronto picks

I can't in good faith back Bowden Francis here against a deep-hitting Phillies lineup. Francis has been hit hard this season, to the tune of a 5.04 ERA. The Phillies are inside the Top 5 in most major offensive categories, and with the deciding pitching advantage, should pick up the win here on Tuesday. 

Toronto will face off against Philadelphia starter Christopher Sanchez in tonight’s opener. The 26-year-old left-hander has been solid this season, but not unhittable. He ranks just above league average in opponent expected batting average and has surrendered 20 hits over his last three starts. The Blue Jays have also handled southpaws very well. They enter this game ranked fourth in batting average and fifth in wRC+ vs. lefties this season. Countering Sanchez in Bowden Francis. The right-hander has looked a little better in his last two starts, but he’s still trying to find the magic from last season. His expected ERA and expected opponent batting average both rank in the Bottom 13% among MLB pitchers. That’s not great against a lineup as deep as the Phillies. Philly ranks fifth in batting average, seventh in OPS, and ninth in wRC+.

Bowden Francis struggles mightily against left-handed hitters. He has allowed a .283 average, .962 OPS, 14.3% barrel rate, and 12 homers to lefties this season. Those are astronomically high numbers across the board. Francis throws a ton of four-seamers with the splitter as his favorite alternative pitch. To say Kyle Schwarber excels against those two would be an understatement. Schwarber is hitting .283 with a .352 expected average and 67.4% hard hit rate against righties throwing either of those pitches. He possesses insane power, and the splits are working greatly in his favor against someone who has struggled to limit power to lefties all season long. Don’t be surprised if Schwarber clears this number with one good swing.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.8% underlying K%.. It is scheduled that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Ramon De Jesus) in charge of the strike zone today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.. With 7 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Cristopher Sanchez will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.. Cristopher Sanchez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.

When assessing his batting average ability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in MLB for righty home runs.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Bowden Francis throws from, Max Kepler will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Over the last 14 days, Max Kepler has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 12.9% to 23.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. George Springer is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in MLB for righty home runs.. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.

When assessing his home run skill, Addison Barger ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Addison Barger is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average skill.. Trea Turner is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in MLB for righty home runs.. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in MLB for righty home runs.. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.

When assessing his batting average ability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in MLB for righty home runs.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have the upper hand in today's game.