Los Angeles @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. This game is projected to have the 4th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Brayan Bello will hold the platoon advantage against Mike Trout in today's matchup... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Mike Trout in today's matchup.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. This game is projected to have the 4th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Because of Yusei Kikuchi's large platoon split, Jarren Duran will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in this game. Jarren Duran has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (5°) is quite a bit lower than his 8.4° figure last season.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. This game is projected to have the 4th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. This year, there has been a decline in Romy Gonzalez's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.94 ft/sec last year to 28.43 ft/sec currently. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Romy Gonzalez ranks in just the 9th percentile with a 3.7° launch angle, which is one of the lowest angles in baseball. In terms of plate discipline, Romy Gonzalez's ability is quite bad, sporting a 4.49 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 25th percentile.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. This game is projected to have the 4th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Zach Neto will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Zach Neto in today's game.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. This game is projected to have the 4th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nolan Schanuel in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Nolan Schanuel's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Rengifo in the 80th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Luis Rengifo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Luis Rengifo has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph to 95.1-mph over the past week. Luis Rengifo's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 41.4% to 49.4%.

Kristian Campbell's BABIP skill is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Kristian Campbell will hold the platoon advantage over Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and even better, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Kristian Campbell has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all parks, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. Given Yusei Kikuchi's large platoon split, Rob Refsnyder will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.

The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all parks, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. Connor Wong will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi today... and even better, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Carlos Narvaez will hold the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and moreover, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Carlos Narvaez has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Taylor Ward ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Taylor Ward is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Taylor Ward has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Taylor Ward generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the league. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Rafael Devers has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Abraham Toro will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Yusei Kikuchi) in today's matchup. Abraham Toro pulls a lot of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 75th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Trevor Story will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.

The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all parks, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. There has been a significant improvement in Chris Taylor's launch angle from last year's 16.8° to 24.6° this season. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.217) may lead us to conclude that Chris Taylor has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .197 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the handedness advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and even better, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Logan O'Hoppe in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Logan O'Hoppe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Logan O'Hoppe has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 20.8% seasonal rate to 35.5% in the past 14 days. Last season, Logan O'Hoppe had an average launch angle of 16° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 23.5°.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jorge Soler ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Soler is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jorge Soler hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jorge Soler has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 92.6-mph over the last 14 days.

The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Travis d'Arnaud has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Travis d'Arnaud has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 12.3% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the last two weeks. Travis d'Arnaud has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 94-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Travis d'Arnaud's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 21.1% on the season to 37.5% in the last 14 days.

The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jo Adell pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. Jo Adell has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last season's 94.1-mph figure. Jo Adell has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 97.7-mph. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) suggests that Jo Adell has suffered from bad luck this year with his .215 actual batting average.

The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Scott Kingery hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.