New York @ Los Angeles picks
Dodger Stadium
NYY vs LAD Picks
MLB Picks
Shohei Ohtani o0.5 Total Home Runs (+215)
ESPN’s "Sunday Night Baseball" features the two best teams in Major League Baseball, with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the New York Yankees. Shohei Ohtani leads all of baseball in home runs, powered by a recent surge at the plate. Ohtani has hit five home runs over his past six games, posting a 1.000 slugging percentage and 1.444 OPS during that span. His Baseball Savant profile is a sea of red, as he ranks in the 100th percentile in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), expected slugging (xSLG), average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. That positions Ohtani well in this matchup against left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, who is set to start for New York. In his career against Yarbrough, Ohtani is 4-for-10 with a home run, a triple, and two doubles.
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+340)
Another Dodgers hitter worth backing in this matchup is Teoscar Hernández, who owns a stellar track record against Yarbrough.
Through 36 career at-bats against the left-hander, Hernández has hit seven home runs and posted a 1.000 slugging percentage.
While Yarbrough has been effective since transitioning to a starting role, his numbers may be inflated by weak competition. His four starts have come against the Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Athletics, and Tampa Bay Rays.
Excluding the Athletics, three of those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in OPS. Yarbrough faces a much tougher challenge in Hernández and the rest of the Dodgers’ lineup.
Shohei Ohtani o0.5 Total Singles (+100)
Ohtani is coming off a game where he only hit a couple of singles. That’s been a common trend for Ohtani over the last few weeks, though. The Dodgers' superstar has just five extra-base hits over his previous nine games (all of those being homers) to go along with six singles. It won’t be an easy matchup for Ohtani and the Dodgers tonight, either, as they take on New York Yankees starter Ryan Yarbrough. The southpaw owns a stingy 3.06 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP this season. Those numbers came way down to 2.25 and 0.85, respectively, in May when he began pitching as a starter, as he’s allowed just five earned runs and 12 total hits over his last four appearances. That’s not to say that Shohei won’t have any success tonight – it’s just that he very well may have to settle for some small ball again.
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (-118)
Judge continues to dominate the hitting leaderboards, leading the MLB in most major categories. Still, it’s his ability to get on base consistently that’s been the most impressive part about his game this season.
The Yankees slugger is leading the majors with a .398 batting average – more than 100 points above his career rate of .294 and well above last season’s career high of .322.
Unsurprisingly, Judge also leads all batters with 168 total bases. He’s collected 15 total bases already in this series and has multiple bases in five of his last eight outings.
Judge might not have immediate success tonight vs. Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Still, LA’s bullpen is pretty middle-of-the-road with a 1.29 WHIP, so I expect the Yankees slugger to at least pick up a couple more bases.
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (+116)
Freeman's red-hot May brought his average on the season up to .374, second only to Judge for the best mark in the majors, while his 17 doubles are tied for sixth-most among all batters. Freeman has collected 2+ total bases in three straight games and five of his last six while notching four extra-base hits over that span. Interestingly, the left-handed Yarbrough has struggled more against lefties than righties this year, which bodes well for Freeman. Left-handed hitters are batting .245 with a .367 slugging percentage vs. Yarbrough, while those splits are just .177/.329 for righties.
