Pittsburgh @ San Diego picks

The Padres and Pirates kick off the evening portion of Sunday’s MLB slate. Left-hander Andrew Heaney takes the mound for Pittsburgh, and he appears due for regression.

Despite a 3.41 ERA this season, the southpaw owns a 4.74 expected ERA (xERA) and ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, and barrel rate. If anyone on San Diego is poised to capitalize on that expected regression, it’s Manny Machado.

Machado ended May in excellent form, posting a .677 slugging percentage, 1.060 OPS, and two home runs over his final eight games. That success is likely to continue against Heaney, off whom Machado has already homered twice in 21 career at-bats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast expects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Andrew McCutchen hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alexander Canario in the 83rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Alexander Canario is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all parks, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast expects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Heaney throws from, Manny Machado will have an edge today.

Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast expects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Randy Vasquez.. Tommy Pham has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 27.17 ft/sec to 27.68 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 76th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast expects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Ke'Bryan Hayes has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.1-mph average to last season's 88.7-mph figure.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in baseball.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as MLB's 7th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand today.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Among all parks, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Among all parks, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Gavin Sheets will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.