Boston @ Milwaukee picks

The clear pitching advantage in this contest goes to the Milwaukee Brewers. Staff ace Freddy Peralta, a right-hander, takes the mound and is a strong candidate to back. Through 11 starts this season, the right-hander owns a 5-3 record with a 2.55 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that this level of performance is sustainable. Peralta ranks in the top third of the league in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate. Brayan Bello gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and his analytics are particularly poor this year. Entering this matchup, Bello ranks in the 10th percentile or lower in expected ERA (xERA), xBA, chase rate, and walk rate.

Brayan Bello takes the mound for the Boston Red Sox and is due for regression as his 4.08 ERA is well below his 5.50 xERA and 4.88 FIP. Bello can’t figure out how to safely retire left-handed bats, allowing a 1.83 WHIP with a walk rate (14.4%) nearly as high as his K rate (17.1%). One Milwaukee bat poised to capitalize is Christian Yelich, who holds a career 137 wRC+ against RHP. The outfielder got off to a slow start this season but has started heating up, going 9-for-21 with three home runs and eight RBI across his last five games.

The Milwaukee Brewers (20.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate today.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Connor Wong (the Red Sox's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as a weak pitch framer.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Brayan Bello will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

When it comes to his home run skill, Jake Bauers ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Jake Bauers will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rhys Hoskins in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Rhys Hoskins is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.

The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Connor Wong has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 14.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit lower than his 17.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. With a .328 BABIP since the start of last season, Connor Wong grades out in the 89th percentile.

Marcelo Mayer has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Marcelo Mayer will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Kristian Campbell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.