Another lovely day of baseball is in store this Wednesday, and we’ve scoured the MLB player props to find today’s best plays.
Christian Yelich and Manny Machado look to stay hot in favorable matchups, while rookie Noah Cameron hopes to feast against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that struggles to hit lefties.
See what I’m playing for these three players with my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 28.
Best MLB player props today
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Yelich o1.5 H+R+RBI (-105) -
Machado o1.5 TB (+115) -
Cameron o4.5 Ks (-112)
MLB props for May 28
Christian Yelich Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-105 at BetMGM)
Brayan Bello takes the mound for the Boston Red Sox and is due for regression as his 4.08 ERA is well below his 5.50 xERA and 4.88 FIP.
The 26-year-old hurler isn’t making batters miss (fifth percentile chase rate) and is issuing far too many free passes (11th percentile walk rate).
There are 142 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings this season. Among them, Bello ranks 131st in Stuff+ (90).
The Milwaukee Brewers will be licking their lips against Bello’s sixth-percentile xBA (.302) — especially the lefties.
Bello can’t figure out how to safely retire left-handed bats, allowing a 1.83 WHIP with a walk rate (14.4%) nearly as high as his K rate (17.1%).
One Milwaukee bat poised to capitalize is Christian Yelich, who holds a career 137 wRC+ against RHP.
The outfielder got off to a slow start this season but has started heating up, going 9-for-21 with three home runs and eight RBI across his last five games.
My MLB picks are taking Yelich to stay hot at home in a favorable matchup.
Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)
Manny Machado has been on a tear for the San Diego Padres, going 8-for-19 with three home runs in his last five games.
The Miami Marlins send out veteran Sandy Alcantara. The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner had been far off his peak performance, rocking an 8.04 ERA through 10 starts. He’s been clobbered for at least four earned runs in each of his last five starts.
The tall right-hander is allowing hard contact (11th percentile hard-hit rate, 15th percentile average exit velocity) and isn’t making batters miss (18.5% K rate).
If there’s a “full fade” pitcher in the MLB right now, it’s Alcantara. He’s one of the game’s best talents when he’s right, but it’s evident that things aren’t clicking.
Machado has feasted on this matchup in the past, going 6-for-9 with a 1.417 OPS against Alcantara.
The star third baseman rakes against four-seamers (154 wRC+) and sinkers (146 wRC+), which are Alcantara’s two most-thrown offerings against righties (combined 58.6%).
Petco Park will feature good weather for hitting today, with winds of 10 mph blowing out to right field.
Manny has recorded 2+ total bases in four of his last five games, so I’m targeting the plus money on him doing so yet again on Wednesday.
Noah Cameron Over 4.5 strikeouts (-112 at FanDuel)
Rookie Kansas City Royals left-hander Noah Cameron has made quite the impression through his first three starts in the bigs.
First, he took a no-hit bid into the seventh inning against Tampa… only to be sent back down to the minors afterward. Then he held St. Louis to one run (on two hits), and most recently, he struck out eight Minnesota batters while allowing only four hits.
All said, he’s compiled a 0.93 ERA and 2.89 xERA.
His .102 BABIP and 100% left-on-base rate are both clear indicators that the 0.93 ERA won’t last, but of course it won’t. The Central Arkansas product has been impressive regardless, ranking in the 85th percentile in xBA and the 77th percentile in barrel rate.
The Cincinnati Reds struggle to hit left-handed pitching. They have a 69 wRC+ (24th) and a .278 wOBA (22nd) with a 27.3% K-rate against southpaws since the start of May.
Cameron has a respectable 11.2% swinging strike rate and will look to capitalize against a Reds lineup that can hardly avoid punching out against lefties.
He’ll be pitching at home with the wind blowing in, and he could be given a longer leash than normal due to Kansas City’s taxed bullpen. Six different relievers threw more than 15 pitches last night, so skipper Matt Quatraro could use some longevity from his young starter.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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