Atlanta @ Philadelphia picks

It’s a classic NL East matchup as the Braves face the Philadelphia Phillies, who send Zack Wheeler to the mound. While the right-hander has been lights out with a 2.42 ERA, Acuna has had success against the veteran, going 13-for-51 with four home runs. Acuna is red-hot, and Wheeler has coughed up eight long balls this season. 

Ronald Acuna Jr. has returned with a bang since making his season debut last week, smacking two homers in just four games. He’s a .315 hitter versus Philadelphia with 17 home runs in 78 games. This will be his first of the NL East rivalry in a while and you better believe Acuna will be ready to roll. 

Kyle Schwarber has three long balls in his last eight contests and the Philadelphia Phillies will face the Atlanta Braves in a doubleheader today. AJ Smith-Shawver gets the ball in Game 1 and although Schwarber is 0-for-1 against him, he has eight homers at home and also has clubbed eight off right-handed hurlers.

Sanchez made the All-Star game for the first time in 2024 and has been even sharper this year, pitching to a 3.17 ERA through 10 starts. His xERA is just as good at 3.12 and he ranks in the top 15th percentile in barrel rate and ground ball rate. Atlanta got a boost with the recent return of Ronald Acuna Jr, but this is still a lineup that struggles to hit lefties. While they bat .256 against righties that number plummets to .215 versus southpaws. They also have an OPS of just .676 on the road and Sanchez has allowed fewer than 5.5 hits in six of his last seven starts.

I would play this to -135/-140 today as AJ Smith-Shawver is getting the ball for Game 1 of the doubleheader. His leash hasn’t been very long of late but he is on seven days of rest and could hit the high 90s today in pitches. It’s a tough road game vs. the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves starter is coming off his worst start where he allowed eight hits and seven runs. He might have to eat some innings even if he continues to pitch poorly. He allows about a hit per inning and getting five innings or more is quite possible. The extra rest, the doubleheader, and the matchup are all working in favor of his Overs.  

Let’s bet some more on volume in Game 1 of the doubleheader. Cristopher Sanchez will be pitching on an extra day of rest and could have a longer leash than normal while needing to save the bullpen for Game 2. THE BAT is projecting 93 pitches and 1.7 walks allowed from the Philly starter today but there is a chance that he throws closer to 100 pitches this afternoon. Sanchez has three or more walks in four of his last five games and has gone Over this number in 70% of his starts in 2025. The Braves are a better-than-average team in BB%, sitting at 9% on the season. Maybe on a full slate day, this play doesn’t make the card, but on a five-game slate with a doubleheader, this is a buy for me to -135.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. This game is predicted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Kyle Schwarber will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against AJ Smith-Shawver today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. This game is predicted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Marcell Ozuna will have the upper hand today.. Marcell Ozuna pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

When it comes to his home run skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Sean Murphy is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. This game is predicted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Sean Murphy will have an advantage today.. Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.. This game is predicted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Cristopher Sanchez.. Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball bats like Ozzie Albies tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. This game is predicted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage over AJ Smith-Shawver in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage in today's game.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.5°, Max Kepler has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 50.7° figure in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Austin Riley as Major League Baseball's 15th-best home run hitter.. Austin Riley is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. This game is predicted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Austin Riley will have the upper hand in today's game.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. This game is predicted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Kyle Schwarber will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against AJ Smith-Shawver today.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. This game is predicted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Kyle Schwarber will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against AJ Smith-Shawver today.

Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 5th-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. This game is predicted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Ronald Acuna Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez today.

Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks.. This game is predicted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Nick Allen will have an advantage today.. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the weakest out of every team in action today.. Nick Allen has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph to 89.8-mph in the last two weeks.