San Francisco @ Detroit picks
Comerica Park
SF vs DET Picks
MLB Picks
Total Bases


Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Lefties are cracking .275/.350/.549 against Giants RHP Hayden Birdsong and Kerry Carpenter could have a big day at the plate. Carpenter is an aggressive hitter with a keen eye and a .454 xWOBA against right-handed heat. Carpenter is in the zone. He’s cleared 2+ total bases in three of his previous five games. He massacres righties, and his underlying metrics suggest his hot bat could continue today with at least two total bases.
Total RBIs

Heliot Ramos o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Among every team playing today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.
Total RBIs

Matt Chapman o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Matt Chapman projects as the 9th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Among every team playing today, the 8th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.
Total Bases

Matt Chapman o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Matt Chapman projects as the 9th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Among every team playing today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Matt Chapman o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-110)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Matt Chapman projects as the 9th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Among every team playing today, the 8th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Luis Matos o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-175)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Comerica Park has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Among every team playing today, the 8th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.. Luis Matos has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year's 89.6-mph figure.. Luis Matos has paced 24.4 home runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile for power.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jake Rogers o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Comerica Park has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jake Rogers will hold that advantage in today's game.. Jake Rogers has done a strong job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 22.9° mark is among the highest in the majors since the start of last season (98th percentile).
Total Bases

Jung Hoo Lee o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his batting average skill, Jung Hoo Lee is projected as the 18th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jung Hoo Lee is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Comerica Park has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. Hitting from the opposite that Keider Montero throws from, Jung Hoo Lee will have an advantage today.. Among every team playing today, the 8th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.
Total Bases

Heliot Ramos o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Among every team playing today, the 8th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.
Total Bases

Mike Yastrzemski o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Mike Yastrzemski is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. Comerica Park has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Keider Montero throws from, Mike Yastrzemski will have an edge in today's matchup.. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers.