Los Angeles @ New York Picks & Props

Citi Field grades out as the #30 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Shohei Ohtani will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.410) may lead us to conclude that Shohei Ohtani has been very fortunate this year with his .433 actual wOBA.

Citi Field grades out as the #30 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Freddie Freeman in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Freddie Freeman's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.8% down to 0%. Freddie Freeman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, going from 19.1% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.

Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Tyrone Taylor will have an edge in today's game. Tyrone Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today. Tyrone Taylor will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Tyrone Taylor has put up a .319 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Mookie Betts ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Mookie Betts is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Mookie Betts generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Griffin Canning. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams playing today.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Andy Pages ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks. Hitters such as Andy Pages with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Griffin Canning who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams playing today. Andy Pages has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.8% seasonal rate to 18.9% over the past two weeks.

Brett Baty has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Brett Baty will hold that advantage in today's game. The Barrel% of Brett Baty has significantly improved, with an increase from 5.5% last year to 16.9% this year. In the past 14 days, Brett Baty's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.6%.

When estimating his BABIP ability, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams playing today. Using Statcast data, Teoscar Hernandez ranks in the 94th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .293.

Luisangel Acuna's BABIP ability is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luisangel Acuna will have the handedness advantage against Clayton Kershaw in today's game. Luisangel Acuna hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Luisangel Acuna will hold that advantage in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Clayton Kershaw. Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.

Mark Vientos is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Mark Vientos will have an edge in today's matchup. Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's shallowest CF fences today. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today. Mark Vientos will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 19th-best hitter in the game. Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Pete Alonso will have the handedness advantage over Clayton Kershaw today. Pete Alonso pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks. Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Francisco Alvarez will have an edge in today's matchup. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last 7 days, Francisco Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.3% up to 50%.

Michael Conforto will have the handedness advantage over Griffin Canning in today's game. Michael Conforto has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams playing today. Michael Conforto has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.6-mph average. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.315) implies that Michael Conforto has experienced some negative variance this year with his .266 actual wOBA.

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks. Max Muncy will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Griffin Canning in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Max Muncy tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Griffin Canning. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams playing today. In the last 7 days, Max Muncy's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.3% up to 16.7%.

Tommy Edman's batting average skill is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams playing today. The Barrel% of Tommy Edman has significantly improved, with an increase from 3.6% last year to 9.7% this season. Tommy Edman has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.1-mph average to last year's 87.6-mph average.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today. Juan Soto will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Starling Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks. Starling Marte will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in today's matchup. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Brandon Nimmo will hold that advantage in today's game.