San Diego @ Toronto Picks & Props

The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jackson Merrill today. Despite posting a .423 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jackson Merrill has had positive variance on his side given the .076 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .347.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. This season, Martin Maldonado has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.6 mph compared to last year's 93.5 mph mark. Martin Maldonado's 17.9° launch angle (a reliable metric to measure a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in baseball: 84th percentile.

The #3 venue in the game for suppressing BABIP to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Chris Bassitt will hold the platoon advantage over Fernando Tatis Jr. in today's game... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Bassitt's large platoon split. Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s launch angle this year (6.4°) is considerably worse than his 9.7° mark last season. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, going from 15.1% on the season to 5.9% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Luis Arraez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.2-mph dropping to 80.5-mph over the last 14 days. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.9-mph EV last season has decreased to 84.6-mph. Luis Arraez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, falling from 17.9% on the season to 7.1% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Nathan Lukes will have the upper hand today. Extreme groundball bats like Nathan Lukes usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Dylan Cease. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Nathan Lukes will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.389) provides evidence that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been unlucky this year with his .357 actual wOBA.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Elias Diaz has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 4.3% seasonal rate to 20% over the last 7 days. In the last week's worth of games, Elias Diaz's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.5%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. George Springer will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. George Springer has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 9.3% rate last season to 18.1% this season.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Gavin Sheets has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92-mph average to last season's 87.8-mph average. Gavin Sheets has notched a .286 batting average this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Manny Machado has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.4-mph to 96.5-mph over the last week. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 46.8% to 52.1%.

Alejandro Kirk's batting average ability is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Alejandro Kirk will hold that advantage today. Alejandro Kirk has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 91.2-mph average.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Considering Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Jake Cronenworth will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Jake Cronenworth's launch angle of late (19.5° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 12.4° seasonal mark. Jake Cronenworth has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .244 BA is a fair amount lower than his .279 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Xander Bogaerts has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 104.3-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 91.4-mph. Xander Bogaerts's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 42% to 50.8%.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Addison Barger will have an edge in today's game. Addison Barger will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Addison Barger has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last year's 88.1-mph mark. Addison Barger has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 101.9-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 96.2-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Ernie Clement will hold that advantage today. There has been a significant improvement in Ernie Clement's launch angle from last season's 16.2° to 21° this season. Over the past two weeks, Ernie Clement's 56.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 8th-best hitter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP ability. Bo Bichette is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Bo Bichette will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Bo Bichette has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 97.4-mph in the last week's worth of games.

Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Daulton Varsho will have an edge in today's game. Daulton Varsho will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. The Barrel% of Daulton Varsho has significantly improved, with an increase from 6.4% last year to 22.6% this season.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Anthony Santander will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Anthony Santander's launch angle of late (51° in the past week) is considerably better than his 16.8° seasonal figure. Despite posting a .254 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Anthony Santander has had some very poor luck given the .071 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .325.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Jason Heyward will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt today... and the cherry on top, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Despite posting a .222 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jason Heyward has had bad variance on his side given the .073 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295.