Detroit @ Toronto Picks & Props

Kerry Carpenter has been pinch hit for 22% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year. The #1 field in MLB for suppressing BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kerry Carpenter in today's game. Kerry Carpenter's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, going from 21.5% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.

Rogers Centre grades out as the #27 stadium in baseball for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jose Berrios will have the handedness advantage against Gleyber Torres today. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of every team on the slate today. Gleyber Torres will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Gleyber Torres has been lucky this year, putting up a .356 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .027 gap.

Rogers Centre grades out as the #27 stadium in baseball for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jackson Jobe will have the handedness advantage over Bo Bichette in today's matchup.

When assessing his batting average ability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.386) may lead us to conclude that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has experienced some negative variance this year with his .354 actual wOBA.

Daulton Varsho is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Daulton Varsho will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Jobe today. Daulton Varsho will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Daulton Varsho has made notable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 6.4% rate last year to 25.9% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Hitters such as Spencer Torkelson with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jose Berrios who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Spencer Torkelson has made big strides with his Barrel%, upping his 6.8% rate last year to 13.9% this season.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Anthony Santander will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.8°, Anthony Santander has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 51° figure over the last week. Despite posting a .260 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Anthony Santander has experienced some negative variance given the .067 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.

Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Hitting from the opposite that Jackson Jobe throws from, Addison Barger will have an edge in today's game. Addison Barger will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Addison Barger has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season's 88.1-mph EV. In the past two weeks, Addison Barger's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.3-mph over the course of the season to 108.7-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Stefanic in the 85th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Hitters such as Michael Stefanic with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jackson Jobe who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Michael Stefanic will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Alejandro Kirk's batting average skill is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Alejandro Kirk will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Alejandro Kirk has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 91.1-mph mark.

Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Javier Baez has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 8.3% seasonal rate to 20% over the past 7 days. Javier Baez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal EV of 92.4-mph. Javier Baez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 17.7% on the season to 33.3% in the past week. Ranking in the 91st percentile, Javier Baez sports a .302 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Nathan Lukes will have the handedness advantage over Jackson Jobe today. Extreme groundball bats like Nathan Lukes usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jackson Jobe. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nathan Lukes will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene as the 6th-best hitter in baseball when assessing his BABIP talent. Riley Greene is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Riley Greene will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Riley Greene has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 16.8% seasonal rate to 25% over the last two weeks.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, George Springer ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and George Springer will hold that advantage today. George Springer has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 9.3% rate last season to 18.3% this season.

Trey Sweeney will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios today. Trey Sweeney hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The switch-hitting Jonatan Clase will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Jackson Jobe. Jonatan Clase will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Zach McKinstry is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Zach McKinstry will have the upper hand today. Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Zach McKinstry has recorded a .286 batting average this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.

Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Dillon Dingler has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.3-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 93.2-mph. With a .314 BABIP since the start of last season, Dillon Dingler is positioned in the 77th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colt Keith in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Colt Keith will have the handedness advantage over Jose Berrios today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Ernie Clement will hold that advantage today. Ernie Clement's launch angle this year (21.5°) is quite a bit better than his 16.2° mark last year. Ernie Clement's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, rising from 45% on the season to 54.8% over the last two weeks.

Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Akil Baddoo will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.276) suggests that Akil Baddoo has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .222 actual wOBA. Akil Baddoo's 95.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to study power) ranks in the 92nd percentile since the start of last season.