Minnesota @ Milwaukee picks
American Family Field
MIN vs MIL Picks
MLB Picks
MoneyLine

Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Total

Tony Sartori
Betting Analyst
The Minnesota Twins hands the ball to right-hander Pablo López, and he should serve as a good candidate to back. Through seven starts this season, López is 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally impressive. The right-hander ranks in the top third of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, right-hander Tobias Myers takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers. Through five appearances, Myers is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Analytically, he’s even stronger. Myers sports a 3.82 xERA and .239 xBA, two metrics that reflect his outstanding 1.9% barrel rate.
Total RBIs

Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. American Family Field has the 7th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Sporting a .287 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Ryan Jeffers has performed in the 75th percentile.
Total RBIs

Brooks Lee o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Brooks Lee is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The switch-hitting Brooks Lee will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Tobias Myers.. Brooks Lee has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 4.1% rate last season to 11.2% this year.
Total RBIs

Ty France o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Ty France's batting average skill is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ty France is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. American Family Field has the 7th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. As it relates to his home runs, Ty France has suffered from bad luck this year. His 10.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.3.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jake Bauers o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-120)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Pablo Lopez throws from, Jake Bauers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Batters such as Jake Bauers with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Pablo Lopez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Rhys Hoskins o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-150)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
American Family Field has the 7th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Extreme flyball hitters like Rhys Hoskins tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Pablo Lopez.. Rhys Hoskins will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Rhys Hoskins has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 93.7-mph in the last 14 days.
Total Bases

Royce Lewis o0.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 79th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. American Family Field has the 7th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.250) provides evidence that Royce Lewis has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .226 actual batting average.. Royce Lewis has paced 28.2 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 91st percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Caleb Durbin o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-155)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Caleb Durbin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Caleb Durbin will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Caleb Durbin has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 1.2% seasonal rate to 6.3% over the past 7 days.
Total Bases

Jackson Chourio o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jackson Chourio's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Chourio is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total Bases

Trevor Larnach o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Trevor Larnach is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. American Family Field has the 7th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Trevor Larnach will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tobias Myers in today's game.
Total Bases

Ryan Jeffers o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. American Family Field has the 7th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 6th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Sporting a .287 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Ryan Jeffers has performed in the 75th percentile.