Minnesota @ Baltimore picks

We roll with the Twins here as they look to extend their winning streak to 11 games. They got the better of the O's in Wednesday's double-header and will have the pitching advantage once again. Given how hot they are at the dish, we'll take the plus money price here on the hotter team. 

The shortstop has three long balls in his last five games, and in four of those contests, he had two hits. Today’s matchup plays in his favor: the Orioles will face Minnesota Twins right-hander Chris Paddack, who has given up seven home runs already in 2025. Henderson is 3-for-4 lifetime against the right-hander with a homer, and he could leave the ballpark again this afternoon.

Minnesota boasts a league-average strikeout rate against righties (21%) on the whole, but the past 14 days have seen an enormous spike (24%), and my thinking is that if Sugano pitches well into or past the fifth, he eats four Twinkies. We’re getting a reasonable price for a market Sugano has cleared in his last three starts. He’s always around the dish, and his long leash paired with the Twins' rising strikeout rate (17 times in Wednesday’s DH) is reason enough to bet the Over on Sugano’s strikeout prop total. 

The O/U for Chris Paddack's strikeouts today is set at just 3.5 which seems too low given his recent form and his favorable matchup against the Orioles. Paddack fanned 5+ batters in four of his last six starts, posting a 2.51 ERA with an OBA of .191 over that span. The O's are 28th in the majors in strikeout rate (24.1%) so I'd also play the 5+ strikeouts milestone for Paddack at +140 or better. 

Ryan Jeffers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #3 field in baseball for overall right-handed offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Ryan Jeffers has notched a .294 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season, grading out in the 77th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the league.. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Gunnar Henderson will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Paddack today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. The shallowest RF dimensions in MLB are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. The #3 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Hitting from the opposite that Chris Paddack throws from, Jackson Holliday will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 81st percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #3 field in baseball for overall right-handed offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. When it comes to power, Royce Lewis grades out in the 91st percentile, having averaged 27.8 dingers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

Byron Buxton projects as the 14th-best home run batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #3 field in baseball for overall right-handed offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Byron Buxton has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano doesn't generate many whiffs (13th percentile K%) — great news for Buxton.

Brooks Lee is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. The #3 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Brooks Lee will get to bat from his better side against Tomoyuki Sugano in today's matchup.. Brooks Lee pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Carlos Correa is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #3 field in baseball for overall right-handed offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Placing in the 84th percentile, Carlos Correa has posted a .320 BABIP since the start of last season.

Byron Buxton projects as the 14th-best home run batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #3 field in baseball for overall right-handed offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Byron Buxton has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano doesn't generate many whiffs (13th percentile K%) — great news for Buxton.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Tyler O'Neill as baseball's 12th-best home run hitter.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #3 field in baseball for overall right-handed offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Out of every team in action today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Minnesota Twins.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage today.