Los Angeles @ San Diego picks

Manny Machado has feasted against Angels SP Kyle Hendricks, going 9-for-20 against the veteran righty. The Padres have piled up 48 runs across their last five games, helped by a 21-0 win over the Colorado Rockies on the weekend. I see Machado, who’s served up seven RBI this month, leading the charge in tonight’s series decider.

Petco Park profiles as the #26 ballpark in the league for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. This game is predicted to have the 4th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Over the past week, Jackson Merrill's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 93.8 mph to 91.4 mph.. Jackson Merrill's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 48.9% on the season to 37.5% over the past 14 days.

When estimating his home run ability, Logan O'Hoppe ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Logan O'Hoppe has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for O'Hoppe.. Logan O'Hoppe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Logan O'Hoppe has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year's 94.6-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Jorge Soler as Major League Baseball's 18th-best home run batter.. Jorge Soler is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Jorge Soler hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Taylor Ward is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Taylor Ward has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 13.9% seasonal rate to 20% over the past two weeks.. Taylor Ward's launch angle this year (21.3°) is quite a bit higher than his 17.3° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Among all stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Jo Adell has big-time HR ability (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez has a pitch-to-contact profile (14th percentile K%) — great news for Adell.. In the last week's worth of games, Jo Adell's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.7% up to 40%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zach Neto in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Zach Neto is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Among all stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Zach Neto has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year's 88.5-mph figure.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Among all stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Kyren Paris has strong power (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (34.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez is a pitch-to-contact type (1st percentile K%) — great news for Paris.. Kyren Paris has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 93-mph in the past 14 days.. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.1°, Kyren Paris has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 47° angle in the last 7 days.

Among all stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Martin Maldonado has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (31.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks has a pitch-to-contact profile (6th percentile K%) — great news for Maldonado.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. This season, Martin Maldonado has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.6 mph compared to last year's 93.5 mph mark.

When estimating his home run ability, Logan O'Hoppe ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Logan O'Hoppe has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for O'Hoppe.. Logan O'Hoppe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Logan O'Hoppe has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year's 94.6-mph figure.