Los Angeles @ Arizona picks

I know it's always risky taking an Under in Dodgers games, but two of the better NL pitchers square off with Yamamoto taking on Bfaadt. Yamamoto sports a 0.90 ERA while the Dbacks hurler checks in at 3.79. I expect them to get the better of the offenses, and this game to stay Under the number. 

Michael Conforto is 3-for-7 lifetime with two long balls vs. Diamondbacks SP Brandon Pfaadt. While Conforto is in a major slump, this matchup could be exactly what he needs to break out of it. Pfaadt is also having trouble with the long ball, allowing seven in as many starts. 

Yamamoto had a strong rookie season in 2024 and he's been even more dominant this year, posting a 0.90 ERA with an OBA of .171 through seven starts. He has allowed just a single earned run in 30 innings over his last five starts. While those absurd numbers aren't sustainable long-term, his xERA of 2.47 suggests that he'll continue to throw at a Cy Young level moving forward. Yamamoto does have a tough matchup today against the Diamondbacks who are fourth in the majors in OPS (.759). That said, Arizona's OPS has dropped to .710 over the last two weeks and Yamamoto has been getting the job done against dangerous lineups, shutting down the Braves, Cubs and Phillies over the last last month. 

There are few pitchers who I will bet a prop on at almost any reasonable number and Brandon Pfaadt Under 1.5 walks at -110 or better is one of them. The Arizona Diamondbacks righty is one of the most efficient and low-BB% pitchers in baseball who pitches to contact very early in counts. He ranks 30th in the league at 3.8 pitches per plate appearance and finished last season at No. 2 at 3.7 pitches/PA. He is 5-2 to the Under on the season and has yet to throw more than two walks in a start in 2025. The home start on his own mound, even against the Los Angeles Dodgers, is just the icing on the cake.

Yamamoto faced the D-backs twice last season and held current batters to a .199 expected batting average and a .308 expected slugging. He’s held opponents below that number in four of his seven starts and has never allowed more than five hits in a game this season. I’m betting the Japanese phenom continues to deal in this matchup tonight. 

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Mookie Betts ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mookie Betts is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 park in baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 82°.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the majors.. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the league for left-handed batting average.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 82°.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the league for left-handed batting average.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 82°.. Michael Conforto will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Pfaadt today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Conforto's true offensive ability to be a .314, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .065 disparity between that figure and his actual .249 wOBA.. Checking in at the 80th percentile, Michael Conforto has put up a .300 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Andy Pages ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Chase Field ranks as the #2 park in baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 82°.. Andy Pages has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 88.2-mph EV.. Over the past 14 days, Andy Pages's 60.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.9%.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Mookie Betts ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mookie Betts is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 park in baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 82°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the league for left-handed batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 82°.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, James Outman will have an advantage in today's matchup.. James Outman has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .144 mark is quite a bit lower than his .196 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the majors.. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the league for left-handed batting average.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 82°.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have an edge in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Mookie Betts ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mookie Betts is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 park in baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 82°.