Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay props

When estimating his batting average skill, Chandler Simpson is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Chandler Simpson will hold that advantage today.

Extreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez. Compared to his seasonal mark of 3.6°, Yandy Diaz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2.6°) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Bryson Stott's batting average skill is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryson Stott is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Bryson Stott will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz in today's game. Bryson Stott has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph to 88.9-mph over the past 14 days.

Kameron Misner is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Kameron Misner will hold that advantage today. Over the last 7 days, Kameron Misner's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.4%.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Extreme groundball bats like Johan Rojas usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Baz. Johan Rojas has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 87.9-mph average to last season's 85.5-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today. Brandon Lowe will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Christopher Morel will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 15th-best batter in the game when estimating his BABIP talent. Trea Turner is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Trea Turner has notched a .347 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile. Trea Turner has posted a .343 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 96th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. In the last two weeks, Alec Bohm's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.4-mph over the course of the season to 93.5-mph recently. Alec Bohm's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 47.6% on the season to 72.7% in the last 7 days.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 12th-best batter in MLB. Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge in today's matchup. Bryce Harper's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 13.3% to 21.9%.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 18th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an edge in today's matchup. Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Jose Caballero will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage today. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 43.9% to 53.7%.

Danny Jansen is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Danny Jansen will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game. Bats such as Danny Jansen with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. J.T. Realmuto has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .260 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .271 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. J.T. Realmuto has posted a .326 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 86th percentile.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz today. Max Kepler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Max Kepler has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the past week. Max Kepler has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 97.8-mph in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Nick Castellanos has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the past week to his seasonal figure of 93.3-mph. Nick Castellanos's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 50.3% to 55.9%.

When it comes to his BABIP ability, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Brandon Marsh will have the handedness advantage against Shane Baz today. Since the start of last season, Brandon Marsh has an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph, which is one of the best in MLB at the 89th percentile. The standard deviation of Brandon Marsh's launch angle since the start of last season (24.9°) is in the 96th percentile. A low figure like this tends to lead to a higher rate of hits on balls in play.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Junior Caminero will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Taylor Walls will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Cristopher Sanchez today. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today. Taylor Walls will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Taylor Walls has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 3.4% seasonal rate to 12.5% over the past two weeks.

Curtis Mead is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Curtis Mead will have the upper hand today. Curtis Mead has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today.

Jonathan Aranda has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.