The winning streak ended at six days with a 1-2 Tuesday, which was a tough break with the Luis Ortiz Over losing by the hook. It’s a getaway day and that means there are always good angles to dig into.
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Wednesday, May 7.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 7
Hoglund o3.5 strikeouts (-120)
Holmes o5.5 strikeouts (+106)
Kelly o15.5 outs (+105)
Today's SP best bets
Mariners vs. Athletics
The angle: Rookie pitchers making their second start are still hard to price
The move: Gunnar Hoglund Over 3.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
Gunnar Hoglund has earned a second start with the Athletics and should be able to rack up some stats in a matchup vs. the K-happy Seattle Mariners, who will be sporting an afternoon lineup.
The right-hander was wildly efficient in his MLB debut, striking out seven batters, walking none, and allowing just one run over 18 outs. The most impressive thing about it was the efficiency, as the rookie needed just 81 pitches to do it.
He struck out 32% of the batters he faced and got swing strikes on 13.6% of his 81 pitches. There is some ladder potential for our MLB picks here. He projects for 4.16.
Reds vs. Braves
The angle: Leash is maxed out and can get his six over six
The move: Grant Holmes o5.5 strikeouts (+106 at FanDuel)
Right-hander Grant Holmes is coming off a career-high nine punchouts in his last outing and the Atlanta Braves are giving him as many pitches as he wants. He projects for over 95 pitches and THE BAT has him for Over six strikeouts.
The Cincinnati Reds offense sits below the league average in wRC+ and strikes out more on the road. Chris Sale struck out 10 yesterday and there are a possible four starters in today’s lineup with a strikeout rate of 28% or better.
This line is moving but I’m still buying to -125.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks
The angle: Cramps have cost him some innings
The move: Merrill Kelly Over 15.5 outs (+105 at DraftKings)
Merrill Kelly has dealt with leg cramps in two of his last three starts, which have taken him out early. He has been pitching great despite the early hooks, and I’m betting against it today and getting his Over 15.5 outs at plus money.
THE BAT projects 16 outs from the Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher who has topped this number in four of his last five starts despite hitting 90+ pitches just once over that stretch.
His one nine-run outing has ballooned his ERA but he has been clean across his other five starts where he has allowed two or fewer runs.
It’s a home start, which is always better than on the road.
Not intended for use in MA.
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