Los Angeles @ Miami picks

This can go poorly, I know. However, the Dodgers played on Sunday Night Baseball and are turning to reliever Ben Casparius as the opener, and while he's generally been effective, it's more emblematic of L.A. rolling out a bullpen game. Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara has been awful, but he's still working his way back from a long injury absence. I can't expect him to do as poorly at home as he did in Dodger Stadium, so grab the plus-money value on the Marlins.

The Dodgers are yet again one of the top teams in baseball versus ground-ball arms, and Sandy Alcantara has been giving up very well-struck grounders to the tune of a .302 xBA. The strikeout and walk numbers are almost identical, which you never want to see, and the Dodgers remain one of the best teams in the league in both categories. With the moneyline out of reach, I’m going to have to side with the total here. Miami is at a disadvantage against a fly-ball arm, but remains capable of hitting for enough power to get to a patchwork group of Dodgers pitchers. Alcantara, meanwhile, has shown no signs of life.

Freddie Freeman has a track record of success against Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara. He’s 9-for-32 lifetime (.281) with a pair of doubles. All six of his home runs in 2025 have come against right-handed hurlers and he has two bombs in his last four games to go along with a nine-game hitting streak. 

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Dane Myers).. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to less offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ben Casparius to have a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 69 pitches.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Considering that groundball batters hold a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Ben Casparius and his 39.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in this outing squaring off against 2 opposing GB batters.. Ben Casparius will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.. Given the 1.63 disparity between Ben Casparius's 10.50 K/9 and his 8.87 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and should negatively regress in the future.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Connor Norby is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in LoanDepot Park.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 87th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Ben Casparius throws from, Kyle Stowers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among every team on the slate today.

Agustin Ramirez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in LoanDepot Park.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among every team on the slate today.. Agustin Ramirez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Max Muncy will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sandy Alcantara today.. Max Muncy is likely to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.. Extreme groundball hitters like Max Muncy are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara.. Max Muncy's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (31.6° in the last two weeks) is significantly better than his 21.6° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Ben Casparius throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an edge in today's game.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among every team on the slate today.

The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Sandy Alcantara throws from, Michael Conforto will have the upper hand today.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Conforto has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.. Michael Conforto has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 21.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 25.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Michael Conforto sports a .306 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez as the 18th-best batter in MLB when assessing his BABIP skill.. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Teoscar Hernandez has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 11.5% seasonal rate to 23.5% in the past week.. Teoscar Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, rising from 43.3% on the season to 64.7% over the past week.

The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Graham Pauley will hold the platoon advantage over Ben Casparius in today's matchup.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among every team on the slate today.. Graham Pauley will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.