Cleveland @ Washington Picks & Props

Nationals Park grades out as the #27 park in the majors for left-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which tends to lead to worse offense. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Steven Kwan today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan's true offensive talent to be a .307, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .064 difference between that mark and his actual .371 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP skill. James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Considering Ben Lively's large platoon split, James Wood will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today. James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like James Wood tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ben Lively.

Angel Martinez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Angel Martinez pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Angel Martinez's launch angle of late (21.3° over the past week) is a significant increase over his 13.2° seasonal angle. Compared to last season, Angel Martinez has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 39% to 48.1% this season. With a .258 batting average since the start of last season, Angel Martinez is positioned in the 78th percentile.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Kyle Manzardo will have the handedness advantage against Brad Lord in today's matchup. Kyle Manzardo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Kyle Manzardo generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brad Lord. Kyle Manzardo has made significant gains with his Barrel%, improving his 9.5% rate last season to 14.7% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jose Ramirez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Jose Ramirez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brad Lord. Jose Ramirez has posted a .336 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 80th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Because of Ben Lively's large platoon split, Nathaniel Lowe will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Nathaniel Lowe generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ben Lively.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Batting from the opposite that Jake Irvin throws from, Bo Naylor will have an edge in today's game. Bo Naylor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Bo Naylor tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jake Irvin. In the past week, Bo Naylor's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.5% up to 20%.

Austin Hedges pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Jose Tena's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Tena will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ben Lively in today's matchup... and moreover, Lively has a large platoon split. Jose Tena has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Jose Tena with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ben Lively who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Jose Tena will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

CJ Abrams's batting average ability is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Considering Ben Lively's large platoon split, CJ Abrams will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. CJ Abrams will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Crews in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Dylan Crews has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme groundball batters like Dylan Crews tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ben Lively. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Dylan Crews will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Dylan Crews's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.3-mph over the course of the season to 101.1-mph lately.

Josh Bell is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Josh Bell has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme groundball bats like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ben Lively. Josh Bell will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Josh Bell has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 102.4-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 96.4-mph.

Daniel Schneemann is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Nationals Park has the 2nd-shallowest in the league. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Daniel Schneemann will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin in today's matchup. Daniel Schneemann has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 4.8% rate last year to 23.1% this season.

Jacob Young has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Jacob Young with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ben Lively who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jacob Young will hold that advantage today. In the past 14 days, Jacob Young's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.3-mph over the course of the season to 90-mph recently. Compared to his seasonal average of -4.8°, Jacob Young has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a -0.6° figure in the past week's worth of games.

Keibert Ruiz is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Ben Lively) in today's matchup. Keibert Ruiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Keibert Ruiz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB are found in Nationals Park. Brayan Rocchio's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 37.7% to 46.2%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.289) may lead us to conclude that Brayan Rocchio has had bad variance on his side this year with his .222 actual wOBA.

Carlos Santana is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Carlos Santana pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. With a 1.52 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Carlos Santana has displayed favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Alex Call is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Nationals Park has the 2nd-shallowest in the league. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Alex Call will hold that advantage today. In notching a .331 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Alex Call finds himself in the 83rd percentile for offensive skills.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Gabriel Arias has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Gabriel Arias has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Gabriel Arias's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 11.9% to 20.6%. Over the last two weeks, Gabriel Arias's 26.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.6%.

Nolan Jones's BABIP ability is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Brad Lord throws from, Nolan Jones will have the upper hand in today's game. Nolan Jones has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Nolan Jones has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph figure. Despite posting a .246 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nolan Jones has been unlucky given the .065 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.

Among all stadiums, Nationals Park's LF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Riley Adams will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.236) implies that Riley Adams has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .217 actual batting average.

Among all stadiums, Nationals Park's LF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.

Jhonkensy Noel has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.