Boston @ Toronto picks

As the Boston Red Sox hand the ball to Tanner Houck, he enters this matchup pitching to a 5.06 expected ERA while surrendering a .286 expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the 24th and 16th percentiles, respectively. On the other hand, while it wasn’t on display last night, the power is starting to come back to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bat, who has hit two home runs in his last five games. Guerrero also has solid career numbers against Houck, going 7-for-20 with two doubles and striking out just three times. That’s good for a .336 xBA and a .588 xSLG. Over 1.5 total bases for Vladdy looks solid tonight. But let’s make things spicy and back him to hit a home run at a decent price.

Duran was named an All-Star in 2024 and led the AL in doubles (48) and triples (14) while adding 21 home runs. He is again near the top of the league in doubles and triples and has been red-hot lately. The 27-year-old is slashing .390/.432/.659 over the last 10 days with seven extra-base hits. Today he'll have the platoon advantage against Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios who has a 4.24 ERA with an xERA of 4.52 through five starts. Duran has a history of owning Berrios, going 9-18 at the plate with five doubles and three homers in his career against the veteran.

The Toronto Blue Jays used a bullpen day yesterday and will ask Jose Berrios to get a little deeper in this game and reset the relievers.  The Toronto starter has been up and down this year with struggles keeping the ball in the park with four homers allowed across three home starts. Some Boston Red Sox bats have great numbers vs. the right-hander, including Jarren Duran, who is 9-for-18 vs. Berrios with three home runs. Three runs over 18-21 outs is possible, but so is a game where he gets hit hard again. Give me some runs in this indoor game as I am also on the Over 8.5.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 20th-best batter in the majors.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in baseball for lefty home runs.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios in today's game.

As it relates to his home run skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in baseball for lefty home runs.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Trevor Story is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 park in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in baseball for lefty home runs.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Hitters such as Anthony Santander with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in baseball for lefty home runs.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Batting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Triston Casas will have an edge in today's game.

As it relates to his BABIP skill, Kristian Campbell is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #2 park in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Kristian Campbell has been hot recently, cruising to a .404 wOBA in the last 14 days.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 20th-best batter in the majors.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in baseball for lefty home runs.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios in today's game.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in baseball for lefty home runs.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Hitters such as Anthony Santander with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 20th-best batter in the majors.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in baseball for lefty home runs.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios in today's game.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best field in baseball for lefty home runs.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Hitters such as Anthony Santander with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.