Kansas City @ Cleveland Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Hedges in the 0th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Austin Hedges is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this matchup. 28% of the time that Austin Hedges has started against a lefty hurler since the start of last season, he has been pulled from the game early. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-lowest temperature on the slate at 54°. Austin Hedges has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .210 figure is a good deal higher than his .152 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Daniel Schneemann will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.223) suggests that Daniel Schneemann has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .203 actual batting average.

Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-lowest temperature on the slate at 54°. Ben Lively will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. in today's matchup... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Lively's large platoon split. Extreme groundball hitters like Bobby Witt Jr. tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ben Lively. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game. Bobby Witt Jr.'s speed has fallen off this year. His 30.49 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.84 ft/sec now.

Gabriel Arias's BABIP skill is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gabriel Arias is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Batting from the opposite that Cole Ragans throws from, Gabriel Arias will have an edge today. Gabriel Arias has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

Kyle Manzardo is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Kyle Manzardo will hold that advantage in today's game. Kyle Manzardo has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 9.5% rate last year to 21.9% this season. In the last 7 days, Kyle Manzardo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 21.9% up to 55.6%.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Angel Martinez will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Cole Ragans in this game. Angel Martinez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Angel Martinez will hold that advantage today. Angel Martinez has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 16.3° mark is among the highest in MLB since the start of last season (79th percentile).

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Brayan Rocchio will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last week, Brayan Rocchio's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.2-mph over the course of the season to 101.3-mph lately.

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the handedness advantage over Ben Lively today... and even more favorably, Lively has a large platoon split. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Vinnie Pasquantino's launch angle this year (21.1°) is considerably better than his 14.4° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Steven Kwan in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Steven Kwan is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Steven Kwan has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Steven Kwan will hold that advantage in today's game.

Jhonkensy Noel is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Hitting from the opposite that Cole Ragans throws from, Jhonkensy Noel will have an edge in today's game. Jhonkensy Noel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jhonkensy Noel will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Maikel Garcia's batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Maikel Garcia has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Maikel Garcia tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ben Lively.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.

Carlos Santana is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. The switch-hitting Carlos Santana will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Cole Ragans. Carlos Santana pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Carlos Santana will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today. Jose Ramirez will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today. Hunter Renfroe has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season's 92.1-mph mark.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. MJ Melendez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ben Lively today... and the cherry on top, Lively has a large platoon split. MJ Melendez pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. In the last week's worth of games, MJ Melendez has displayed impressive power, recording a a 16.7% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power). MJ Melendez has been lifting the ball well lately, putting up a 34.9° launch angle in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Given Ben Lively's large platoon split, Kyle Isbel will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.

Michael Massey is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Considering Ben Lively's large platoon split, Michael Massey will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today. Michael Massey pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. There has been a significant improvement in Michael Massey's launch angle from last year's 16.7° to 21.5° this season.

Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Salvador Perez's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 73.3% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Bo Naylor has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.