Atlanta @ San Diego Picks & Props

The #10 venue in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to less offense. This matchup is expected to have the 4th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the same side that AJ Smith-Shawver throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. faces a tough challenge in today's game. Fernando Tatis Jr. has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs in recent games, hitting balls between 23° and 34° just 0% of the time over the last 7 days.

Petco Park ranks as the #21 stadium in the majors for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to less offense. This matchup is expected to have the 4th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Luis Arraez has been cold lately, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) over the past two weeks. Luis Arraez's 1.6% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) is in the 2nd percentile since the start of last season.

Michael Harris II's batting average ability is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Michael Harris II will have the handedness advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Michael Harris II hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Michael Harris II usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta. Michael Harris II has been hot of late, posting a a 17.9% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Matt Olson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Matt Olson will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta today. Putting up a 94.8-mph average exit velocity in the last 14 days, Matt Olson has been in great form in recent games. In notching a .343 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Matt Olson grades out in the 82nd percentile for offensive ability.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that AJ Smith-Shawver throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an edge in today's matchup. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today.

In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Drake Baldwin will have an advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage today.

Jarred Kelenic's BABIP talent is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Jarred Kelenic will have an advantage in today's game. Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.316) may lead us to conclude that Jarred Kelenic has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .294 actual wOBA. Jarred Kelenic and his 17.6° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 91st percentile, among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Manny Machado ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today. Manny Machado will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Jackson Merrill is projected as the 14th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that AJ Smith-Shawver throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today.

In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today. Elias Diaz will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Austin Riley ranks as the 16th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Austin Riley is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Austin Riley hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Austin Riley has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .338 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .372 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Austin Riley's 15% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 95th percentile since the start of last season.

Jason Heyward will hold the platoon advantage against AJ Smith-Shawver in today's matchup. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jason Heyward will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jason Heyward has been hot of late, putting up a a 12.5% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) over the last 7 days. Putting up a 93.2-mph average exit velocity over the past 7 days, Jason Heyward has been in great form in recent games.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. In notching a .352 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jurickson Profar is ranked in the 87th percentile for offensive ability. Posting a .274 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jurickson Profar is ranked in the 82nd percentile. Jurickson Profar's 91.1-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in baseball since the start of last season: 85th percentile.

In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Extreme flyball hitters like Orlando Arcia generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Ozzie Albies is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Ozzie Albies's 18.2° launch angle (a reliable stat to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in Major League Baseball: 87th percentile.

Jose Iglesias's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Extreme flyball bats like Jose Iglesias generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like AJ Smith-Shawver. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Iglesias will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jose Iglesias's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 61.8% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Marcell Ozuna's 15.5% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) is in the 96th percentile since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, Marcell Ozuna's flyball exit velocity (a reliable standard to measure power) is in the 99th percentile at 98.2 mph.

Hitting from the opposite that AJ Smith-Shawver throws from, Gavin Sheets will have the upper hand in today's game. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Gavin Sheets's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 26.3% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Gavin Sheets has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .291 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .307.