Busch Stadium
Alec Burleson has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest LF fences today.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa's batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Posting a .276 batting average this year, Isiah Kiner-Falefa finds himself in the 84th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Batting from the same side that Joey Wentz throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have a tough challenge in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Hitting from the same side that Joey Wentz throws from, Brendan Donovan will have a tough matchup today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Bryan De La Cruz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 95.6-mph in the last 7 days. Bryan De La Cruz has been unlucky this year, putting up a .282 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .029 difference.
Joey Bart is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Joey Bart has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 102.1-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 93.8-mph. Joey Bart has notched a .356 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 91st percentile. Placing in the 80th percentile, Joey Bart has posted a .263 batting average this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Sonny Gray in this game. In the past week's worth of games, Bryan Reynolds's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.6% up to 20%.
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Andrew McCutchen has made big gains with his Barrel%, improving his 6.8% rate last year to 12.8% this season.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. In the past 7 days, Jared Triolo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.5-mph over the course of the season to 100.2-mph lately. In the past 14 days, Jared Triolo has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 19.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 7°. Jared Triolo has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .280 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .308 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage today. Paul Goldschmidt has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 10.7% seasonal rate to 17.6% in the past week's worth of games.
Masyn Winn is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Masyn Winn has made significant gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 3.2% seasonal rate to 8.3% over the past week. Masyn Winn has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97.7-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 87.9-mph.
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an edge today. Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Rowdy Tellez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 92.1-mph. Rowdy Tellez's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (24.8° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is a significant increase over his 10.8° seasonal angle.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Ivan Herrera hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage today. Ivan Herrera's footspeed has increased this year. His 26.72 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.32 ft/sec now.
Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. In the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 67.9% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.7%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage today. Jordan Walker has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11.2% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 7 days.
