Logan Gilbert is having another excellent season for the Seattle Mariners, but he hasn’t pitched as well on the road, giving up runs at a higher clip while striking out fewer batters.
My Mariners vs. Phillies predictions expect that trend to continue against one of the league’s hottest offenses. Let’s break it all down with my August 18 MLB picks.
Mariners vs Phillies prediction
Mariners vs Phillies best bet: Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 strikeouts (-125)
Logan Gilbert has piled up the strikeouts at a healthy rate this season, even on the road. He’s recorded at least seven Ks in eight of 12 starts. However, there’s reason to believe there will be an exception tonight vs. the Philadelphia Phillies.
Gilbert has seen his hit rate dip, clearing this line in only three of his last six on the road. Of the six opponents Gilbert faced during that stretch, only one ranks Top-11 in wOBA vs. righties at home since July 1.
The Yankees were the team to fit that criteria, and Gilbert generated only five strikeouts against them.
This Phillies team is a different animal than what Gilbert has been facing. They lead the majors in wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers at home since July 1. The Phillies also sit second to only the Rockies in batting average during that span.
They are consistently getting on base and hitting for plenty of power, making them a tough team to get out.
Gilbert has averaged fewer than 16 outs on the road this season and Covers projects him to record 16.2 in this matchup. Gilbert would need to be extremely efficient with his strikeouts to go Over, a tough task against a Phillies squad that owns the sixth-lowest K-rate at home this year.
Mariners vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Nick Castellanos possesses crazy home/road splits. He’s recorded multiple H+R+R in 66% of his home games compared to just 44% on the road. He has run a little dry of late but recorded five H+R+R on Sunday, and is 2-for-7 against the Seattle Mariners starter with a homer in his career.
Julio Rodriguez has averaged 2.7 H+R+R over his last 10 games. He is red-hot and has produced at a much higher rate on the road all year long.
Ranger Suarez is a quality pitcher, but Rodriguez has hit for a lot of power against left-handed pitching and excels against Suarez’s most-used pitch, the changeup.
Mariners vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Seattle -112 | Philadelphia +102
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+149) | Philadelphia +1.5 (-169)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-115)
Mariners vs Phillies trend
Right-handed starting pitchers have averaged just 4.7 strikeouts over the last 15 games in Philadelphia. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Phillies.
How to watch Mariners vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Monday, August 18, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | RSNW, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Logan Gilbert (3-4, 3.31 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Ranger Suarez (8-6, 3.28 ERA) |
Mariners vs Phillies latest injuries
Mariners vs Phillies weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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