Houston @ San Diego Picks & Props

Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Jason Heyward will have an edge in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Jason Heyward's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.2% up to 25%. In the past 7 days, Jason Heyward's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 103.7-mph recently. Jason Heyward's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 42.9% on the season to 62.5% in the last 7 days.

The #5 venue in the game for suppressing BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most favorable for pitching of all games on the slate today. Luis Arraez's launch angle recently (7.6° in the past 7 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 13.4° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. In the league, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jake Cronenworth will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Jake Cronenworth's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (21.7° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is significantly higher than his 11.8° seasonal mark.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the majors. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Michael King in today's matchup. Yordan Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Yordan Alvarez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, rising from 44.2% on the season to 51.4% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 12th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. Kyle Tucker will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael King in today's matchup. Kyle Tucker's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 94.2-mph seasonal average has decreased to 91.1-mph over the last 7 days. Compared to last season, Kyle Tucker has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 19.5% to 24.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Jurickson Profar is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Jurickson Profar will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.9°, Jurickson Profar has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 25.3° mark in the last two weeks. Jurickson Profar has notched a .356 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Grading out in the 81st percentile, Mauricio Dubon sports a .272 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jackson Merrill has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (95% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Jackson Merrill will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's matchup. Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Jackson Merrill will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Xander Bogaerts will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph to 90.9-mph over the past 14 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xander Bogaerts's true offensive skill to be a .329, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .032 difference between that figure and his actual .297 wOBA.

Victor Caratini hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Victor Caratini has compiled a .270 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Victor Caratini has notched a .332 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 82nd percentile. Ranking in the 90th percentile, Victor Caratini sits with a .282 batting average this year.

In the league, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Higashioka generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown. Kyle Higashioka will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Kyle Higashioka's launch angle recently (39.5° in the past 7 days) is significantly better than his 19.2° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Alex Bregman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Alex Bregman has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 20.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.1°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Bregman's true offensive ability to be a .342, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .019 disparity between that mark and his actual .323 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. In the league, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.3°, Jose Altuve has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 22.3° figure over the past two weeks. Jose Altuve has put up a .353 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 87th percentile.

Donovan Solano's BABIP ability is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Donovan Solano hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Donovan Solano will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. By putting up a .331 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Donovan Solano finds himself in the 81st percentile. Donovan Solano has notched a .291 batting average this year, placing in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. In the league, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Jeremy Pena has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.2-mph average. Using Statcast data, Jeremy Pena grades out in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .277. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Jeremy Pena sports a .274 batting average this year.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 10th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past week, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.1% up to 26.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz as the 19th-best batter in baseball when estimating his batting average talent. Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Yainer Diaz has put up a .338 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 77th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Yainer Diaz has recorded a .305 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 98th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Checking in at the 97th percentile, Yainer Diaz sits with a .302 batting average this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's game. Manny Machado has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.9% seasonal rate to 23.5% in the last week's worth of games.

Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Jon Singleton will have the upper hand in today's game. Jon Singleton hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jon Singleton's maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to measure power) has been 115.4 mph this year, placing in the 93rd percentile. Jon Singleton ranks in the 77th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (17.3% rate this year).

Jake Meyers has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.