Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

Ben Rortvedt has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Grading out in the 80th percentile, Ben Rortvedt sports a .323 BABIP this year.

The #2 stadium in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 7th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yandy Diaz in today's matchup.

The #2 stadium in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 7th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Nick Castellanos will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Bigge today. Out of all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.

The #2 stadium in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 7th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Bigge throws from, Trea Turner will have the upper hand in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jose Siri will have the handedness advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today. Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. This season, Jose Siri has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.6 mph compared to last year's 94 mph mark. Compared to his seasonal figure of 15.5°, Jose Siri has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (12°) in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Bryson Stott is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Hunter Bigge will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryson Stott in today's game. Bryson Stott has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Bryson Stott will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB when estimating his BABIP talent. Hunter Bigge will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Marsh today. Brandon Marsh has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Brandon Marsh will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Brandon Marsh's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 48.1% on the season to 54.2% over the last 14 days.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for HRs. Hunter Bigge will hold the platoon advantage over Kody Clemens in today's matchup. Kody Clemens will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Kody Clemens has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last year's 90.9-mph figure. In the last 7 days, Kody Clemens's maximum exit velocity (a good measure of recent form and raw power) has been 108-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for HRs. Junior Caminero will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. In the past two weeks, Junior Caminero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.8-mph over the course of the season to 100.7-mph of late.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for HRs. Hunter Bigge will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Stubbs in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Garrett Stubbs will hold that advantage today.

Jose Caballero has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Jose Caballero will have the upper hand in today's game. Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP ability is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for HRs. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage today. J.T. Realmuto has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.7% seasonal rate to 16% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Christopher Morel will have an advantage in today's game. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Christopher Morel has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 102.9-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 94.6-mph. Despite posting a .287 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christopher Morel has had some very poor luck given the .033 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .320.

Dylan Carlson is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for HRs. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Dylan Carlson will get to bat from his better side against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (20.8°) is significantly better than his 15° mark last season. Dylan Carlson has been unlucky this year, putting up a .257 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .305 — a .048 difference.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for HRs. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will get to bat from his strong side against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game. Taylor Walls has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph to 92.1-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, rising from 15.2% on the season to 26.7% in the past two weeks. Taylor Walls has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 19.1° mark is among the highest in the game this year (88th percentile).

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for HRs. Johan Rojas will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Johan Rojas has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 3% seasonal rate to 8.3% in the past 7 days.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the same side that Hunter Bigge throws from, Bryce Harper will not have the upper hand today. Bryce Harper has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Bryce Harper will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Kyle Schwarber ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for HRs. Hunter Bigge will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Schwarber in today's game. Kyle Schwarber will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Weston Wilson has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.