Chicago @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Batting from the same side that Garrett Crochet throws from, Jarren Duran will have a disadvantage in today's game. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, decreasing from 14% on the season to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Despite posting a .370 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has experienced some positive variance given the .030 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .340.

Lenyn Sosa is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Because of Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Lenyn Sosa will be at a gigantic disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Lenyn Sosa in today's matchup. Lenyn Sosa has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The #6 field in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Andrew Benintendi will have the handedness advantage against Cooper Criswell in today's game... and the cherry on top, Criswell has a large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Considering Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Luis Robert Jr. will be at a gigantic disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Robert Jr. today. Luis Robert Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 10.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Luis Robert Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 93.9-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 87-mph over the past week.

Nicky Lopez is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The #6 field in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Nicky Lopez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cooper Criswell in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Criswell has a large platoon split. Nicky Lopez is likely to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP. Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Miguel Vargas's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (28.6° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 20° seasonal figure. Despite posting a .259 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Miguel Vargas has been unlucky given the .058 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the schedule today at 78%. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for bats. Jacob Amaya has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Jacob Amaya has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 26.29 ft/sec to 27.98 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. The #6 field in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball. Given Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Gavin Sheets will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Nick Sogard will get to bat from his better side against Garrett Crochet today. Nick Sogard pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Nick Sogard will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's CF fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Masataka Yoshida will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Grading out in the 77th percentile, Masataka Yoshida sports a .336 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year. By putting up a .283 batting average this year, Masataka Yoshida is positioned in the 90th percentile.

The #6 field in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Given Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Dominic Fletcher will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Dominic Fletcher stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Dominic Fletcher has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the last week, Dominic Fletcher's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.6% up to 14.3%.

Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the schedule today at 78%. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for bats. Compared to his seasonal average of 9.5°, Korey Lee has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 19.5° mark over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Andrew Vaughn is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Andrew Vaughn hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. In the past 7 days, Andrew Vaughn's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.7% down to 0%.

Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Chuckie Robinson has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Chuckie Robinson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.6% up to 14.3%. Chuckie Robinson has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.5-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 77.4-mph average. Compared to his seasonal average of -3.5°, Chuckie Robinson has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 0° figure in the past week.

Rafael Devers projects as the 18th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. The #6 field in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Rafael Devers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Rafael Devers will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Connor Wong will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Trevor Story will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Crochet in today's game. Trevor Story has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage today. Trevor Story has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .251 figure is a fair amount lower than his .288 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Tyler O'Neill will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the platoon advantage over Garrett Crochet today. Ceddanne Rafaela will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Rob Refsnyder will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game.

Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Danny Jansen will hold the platoon advantage over Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage today. Danny Jansen's launch angle this season (22.8°) is quite a bit higher than his 19.5° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Romy Gonzalez is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Romy Gonzalez will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Crochet in today's game. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.