Chicago @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 6th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hurlers. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 14% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, notching a .372 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .031 disparity.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 6th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hurlers. In the past 7 days, Rafael Devers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.5% down to 0%. In the last week's worth of games, Rafael Devers's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 95.4 mph to 84.6 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 78th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams playing today. Miguel Vargas has been unlucky this year, compiling a .259 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .318 — a .059 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Andrew Benintendi is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in MLB for LHB base hits. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Andrew Benintendi will have an advantage in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in MLB for LHB base hits. Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Nicky Lopez will have an advantage in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nicky Lopez has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Connor Wong's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 38.3% on the season to 56.5% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in MLB for LHB base hits. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball. Masataka Yoshida will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Davis Martin today.

The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jacob Amaya has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Andrew Vaughn is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Andrew Vaughn hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams playing today.

The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams playing today. Compared to his seasonal average of 9.5°, Korey Lee has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 19.4° figure over the past 14 days. Korey Lee has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .213 rate is a fair amount lower than his .239 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Lenyn Sosa has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams playing today. Lenyn Sosa has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 93.2-mph over the last 7 days. Lenyn Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 46.3% to 51.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in MLB for LHB base hits. Dominic Fletcher will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Dominic Fletcher has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Dominic Fletcher has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams playing today.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in MLB for LHB base hits. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball. Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's game. Gavin Sheets is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in MLB for LHB base hits. Hitting from the opposite that Davis Martin throws from, Triston Casas will have the upper hand today. Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Triston Casas will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Triston Casas has posted a .350 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in MLB for LHB base hits. Enmanuel Valdez will have the handedness advantage against Davis Martin in today's game. Enmanuel Valdez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Enmanuel Valdez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89.5-mph average to last season's 87.5-mph average.

The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Chuckie Robinson has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Bats such as Chuckie Robinson with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams playing today.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Tyler O'Neill pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Luis Robert is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Luis Robert pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.2% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Ceddanne Rafaela will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Ceddanne Rafaela's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 28.6%.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in MLB for LHB base hits. Wilyer Abreu will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Davis Martin in today's game. Wilyer Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.