Boston @ New York Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citi Field as the worst field in the game for LHB batting average. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for mound aces. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, putting up a .374 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .340 — a .034 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. Among every team in action today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Mets. Romy Gonzalez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 96.2-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Romy Gonzalez has compiled a .261 batting average this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.

In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. Among every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Mets. Connor Wong's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 38.5% on the season to 70% in the past week. Connor Wong has recorded a .344 BABIP this year, grading out in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Brandon Nimmo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today.

Triston Casas is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Batting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, Triston Casas will have an edge in today's matchup. Triston Casas may have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP. Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Mets.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage in today's game. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Masataka Yoshida has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Among every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best hitter in the game. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage today. Rafael Devers is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP. Rafael Devers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Jeff McNeil will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Jeff McNeil hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jeff McNeil will hold that advantage in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand in today's game. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Wilyer Abreu can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Wilyer Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences today.

Luis Torrens hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's shallowest CF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Luis Torrens will hold that advantage in today's game. Luis Torrens has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 26.34 ft/sec to 26.84 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Sporting a .264 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Luis Torrens has performed in the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. J.D. Martinez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. J.D. Martinez has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 15% seasonal rate to 20.8% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Starling Marte will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Starling Marte's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 42.4% to 50.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Jesse Winker is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. Jesse Winker will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Jesse Winker has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Among every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Mets. This season, Tyler O'Neill has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.7 mph compared to last year's 92.8 mph mark.

Harrison Bader pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest among every team playing today. Harrison Bader will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Harrison Bader has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 110-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 89.9-mph. Over the past 14 days, Harrison Bader has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 22.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.8°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. Among every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Mets. In the past 7 days, Ceddanne Rafaela's 40% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.3%. Ceddanne Rafaela has done a strong job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 17.5° mark is among the highest in the game this year (89th percentile).

Mark Vientos is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Mark Vientos will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Mark Vientos's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Jose Iglesias has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jose Iglesias will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Alonso in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Pete Alonso pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Pete Alonso will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest among every team playing today. Francisco Alvarez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.