San Diego @ St. Louis props

Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 4th-best out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jackson Merrill in today's game. Despite posting a .342 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jackson Merrill has been lucky given the .015 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327. With a 3.83 K/BB rate this year, Jackson Merrill has demonstrated poor plate discipline, grading out in the 20th percentile.

Batting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Manny Machado will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 4th-best out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Manny Machado in today's game.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage today. Paul Goldschmidt's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (15.9°) is quite a bit higher than his 12.6° figure last year. In the past 7 days, Paul Goldschmidt's 25% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 45.4%.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Victor Scott will have the handedness advantage over Michael King in today's matchup. Victor Scott will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Victor Scott has suffered from bad luck this year. His .209 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .267. Victor Scott is very quick, grading out in the 100th percentile in Sprint Speed at 30.15 ft/sec this year.

Luken Baker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Luken Baker will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Notching a 91.9-mph average exit velocity in the past 7 days, Luken Baker has been in great form in recent games. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.314) implies that Luken Baker has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .294 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage against Michael King in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 87th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Ivan Herrera hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Ivan Herrera will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Ivan Herrera's footspeed has increased this year. His 26.72 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.41 ft/sec now.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Tyler Wade will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler Wade has had bad variance on his side this year. His .250 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .280.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 94°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage today. Grading out in the 77th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score this year, Pedro Pages demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a key ability for achieving a high batting average.

Luis Arraez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 4th-best out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez in today's matchup. Luis Arraez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 83-mph in the last week. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.6-mph mark last year has decreased to 87.5-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games today. Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xander Bogaerts's true offensive skill to be a .329, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .032 deviation between that figure and his actual .297 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Donovan Solano is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Donovan Solano hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Donovan Solano has posted a .342 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 86th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have the upper hand in today's game. Jake Cronenworth's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 16.8% on the season to 26.7% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage over Michael King in today's game. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Masyn Winn is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Masyn Winn hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Masyn Winn will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Masyn Winn has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 90.7-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 87.6-mph.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Checking in at the 78th percentile, Nolan Arenado has put up a .268 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Brendan Donovan will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Brendan Donovan will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Jurickson Profar has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 95.6-mph in the last 7 days. Compared to last season, Jurickson Profar has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 42% to 47.2% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Peralta in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. David Peralta will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's matchup. David Peralta hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. David Peralta's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 46.8% to 53.1%.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 92°. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 17.5% to 25%. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, increasing from 44.7% on the season to 66.7% over the past 14 days. In notching a .327 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Kyle Higashioka is positioned in the 77th percentile.