A West Coast vs. East Coast battle awaits us on Sunday Night Baseball when the Seattle Mariners meet the New York Mets.
Two offensive powerhouses highlight our MLB picks as I discover the best value on the board in my Sunday Night Baseball props and Mariners vs. Mets predictions on Sunday, August 17.
Mariners vs Mets Sunday Night Baseball props
Soto o1.5 TB (+125)
Raleigh o1.5 TB (+110)- Holmes o4.5 Ks (+125)
Mariners vs Mets props for Sunday Night Baseball
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at Caesars)
Seeing Juan Soto at +125 would catch anyone’s eye, and seeing The Bat X label the New York Mets slugger’s bases total as a five-star bet in the MLB player props projections helped land it here.
Even if he’s been in a bit of a slump lately, this is hard to pass up. He’ll have some situational advantages against Seattle Mariners hurler George Kirby, who sees elevated hitting numbers when facing a platoon disadvantage. In addition, he’ll also have a nice breeze blowing out to LF. The pitching arsenal should suit him well, too.
Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at Caesars)
Much like Soto, Cal Raleigh will benefit from the wind blowing out to LF. He’ll also have the distinction of being one of the highest fly-ball hitters in the league. That’s a problem for Clay Holmes.
Holmes owns a hard-hit rate in the bottom 35% of baseball – what player is more suited to attack that than Raleigh? My projections indicated the fair price for this prop around -110, and I’d play it to that.
Clay Holmes Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125 at Caesars)
The variance of Holmes’ strikeout totals has been quite something. He’s had multiple games of eight or nine strikeouts, but also stretches of four or five games with fewer than three. Because of this, he’s been a bit of a fickle player, and tonight is a case of him being mispriced.
Seattle introduced more power into its lineup at the trade deadline, and one of the negative results of that has been becoming an easier team to strike out than it already was.
Since that deadline, the M's strikeouts per game have crept up to just over 9.0, which is about a half strikeout higher than their season average. That, combined with Holmes’ unevenness, makes me believe there’s a higher likelihood this is mispriced.
But what makes it most actionable can be summed up in a sentence: Holmes’ sinker has produced the highest K rate of any of his pitches, and there are six players in the Mariners lineup with an above-average strikeout rate against such pitches.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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