Houston @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 6th-worst park in baseball for RHB BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. Batting from the same side that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Alec Bohm has a tough challenge in today's matchup. Over the past week, Alec Bohm's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%. Alec Bohm's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 90.5-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 84.5-mph in the past 7 days.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an advantage in today's game. Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Brandon Marsh will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 6th-worst park in baseball for RHB BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. Taijuan Walker will hold the platoon advantage over Alex Bregman in today's game. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alex Bregman in today's game. Checking in at the 22nd percentile, Alex Bregman has put up a .271 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 6th-worst park in baseball for RHB BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. Batting from the same side that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Trea Turner will have a tough matchup today. In the past 7 days, Trea Turner's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.6% down to 0%. In the past week's worth of games, Trea Turner's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 92 mph to 82.4 mph.

Citizens Bank Park projects as the #23 field in the majors for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. Yordan Alvarez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Yordan Alvarez has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 14% seasonal rate has dropped to 7.7% over the past two weeks. Compared to his seasonal angle of 18.6°, Yordan Alvarez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.3°) over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 6th-worst park in baseball for RHB BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. Taijuan Walker will have the handedness advantage against Jose Altuve in today's game. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jose Altuve today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.274) implies that Jose Altuve has had positive variance on his side this year with his .297 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 6th-worst park in baseball for RHB BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. Batting from the same side that Taijuan Walker throws from, Jeremy Pena will be in a tough position today. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jeremy Pena in today's game. Jeremy Pena's launch angle lately (-0.3° over the last two weeks) is considerably lower than his 7.1° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 6th-worst park in baseball for RHB BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. Batting from the same side that Taijuan Walker throws from, Yainer Diaz encounters a tough challenge in today's game. Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 21.6% to 12%.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Garrett Stubbs will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Garrett Stubbs will hold that advantage in today's game.

Zachary Dezenzo's BABIP skill is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams playing today. Ranking in the 78th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.37 ft/sec this year, Zachary Dezenzo is remarkably athletic.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Bryce Harper will have an advantage in today's matchup. Bryce Harper has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 20th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. Bryson Stott will hold the platoon advantage against Spencer Arrighetti in today's game. Bryson Stott has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Bryson Stott will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams playing today. In the last 14 days, Jake Meyers's 32.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams playing today. Mauricio Dubon has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 89.2-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 86.6-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage today. In the last week's worth of games, J.T. Realmuto's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 101.4-mph in recent games.

Victor Caratini is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams playing today. Victor Caratini has posted a .268 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. Austin Hays pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Austin Hays will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Placing in the 82nd percentile, Austin Hays has notched a .327 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nick Castellanos will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Gamel in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 98°. Ben Gamel will hold the platoon advantage over Taijuan Walker in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams playing today.

Chas McCormick has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Johan Rojas has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.